Severe semiconductor memory supply deficit until 2029
The guest argued that semiconductor memory will remain structurally undersupplied until 2029 or 2030, driving historic capital expenditure.
The argument
Ted Mortenson argued that the rapid adoption of AI inference has caught the industry off guard, requiring massive amounts of memory. He noted that equipment manufacturers have unprecedented visibility and that South Korea is planning a massive $590 billion spending program with Samsung and SK Hynix.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓ASML, AMAT, and LRCX maintaining 30% revenue growth visibility over multiple quarters
- ✓Execution of the South Korean government's $590 billion semiconductor spending plan
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Overcapacity if planned fab builds outpace demand by the end of the decade
- ▸Short-term software renewal headwinds as IT managers face high component costs
Hear it yourself
"you learn from Steve Oth as he retires here into the year. So the greatest opportunity of my career was to learn at the side of Steve Author the last twenty years he's so much more than a boss. Over the last year, as we're transitioning and he's moving towards retirement, and it's it's probably the greatest honor of my career to succeed him. We often refer to the garden scene of The Godfather, you know, where we're playing through scenarios of the future and how they may play out. We're reviewing the lessons that we've learned together."
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