High-bandwidth memory shortages to persist for years
The guest argued that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shortages will continue for several years due to the massive capital and time required to build new fabrication facilities.
The argument
The guest explained that memory manufacturing capacity is a lumpy step-function, requiring five years and $40 billion per new fab, allowing current producers to command software-like gross margins.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Micron maintaining gross margins near or above 80% in subsequent quarters
- ✓Announcements of new fab groundbreakings by major memory manufacturers
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Rapid demand shift away from HBM-reliant architectures to SRAM or other alternatives
- ▸Overbuilding of fabs leading to a medium-term supply glut
Hear it yourself
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