Private investments distort Big Tech P/E multiples
The case was made that paper gains from private AI investments (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX) are juicing the net income of Amazon and Google, making their P/E multiples appear artificially cheap.
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The story so far
CONTESTED · 679 MENTIONS · 215 EPISODES · 50 SHOWS
21 JUL 2026 — 6 AUG 2026 · TODAY
668 SUPPORT · 11 CHALLENGE
- PROF G MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
25 EPISODES BETWEEN · 127 MENTIONS · 155 NOT KEPT
- 155 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- MOTLEY FOOL MONEY · 2 MENTIONS
- MASTERS IN BUSINESS · 2 MENTIONS
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 5 MENTIONS
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- CNBC FAST MONEY · 5 MENTIONS
- ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG · 9 MENTIONS
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- Compute scarcity advantages frontier AI algorithms
- Leverage amplifies AI momentum unwind
- Go long electrons on massive US power deficit
- AI CapEx boom is fundamentally real
- US fiscal trajectory undermines long-term credit
- China onshoring pressures chip equipment makers
- MARKETPLACE
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- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED · 5 MENTIONS
- PLANET MICROCAP PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW · 3 MENTIONS
- THE POMP PODCAST · 7 MENTIONS
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS · 2 MENTIONS
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 6 MENTIONS
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- Chemical fertilizer shortage spurs cover crop adoption
- Soybean oversupply likely from fertilizer-driven planting shift
- Subsidies delay market response, a tailwind for cattle
- Localized, input-independent farming as a resilience model
- Limited food supply impact from fertilizer shocks
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- EU ETS review: conditionality makes supply tight
- Withholding 20% of free allocation post-2030 is key
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- EU ETS shifting toward a stable, long-term bullish trend
- COMMODITY CULTURE · 2 MENTIONS
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY · 3 MENTIONS
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- PROF G MARKETS · 4 MENTIONS
- EXCESS RETURNS · 7 MENTIONS
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- Forced AI liquidation misread as fundamental bottom
- S&P margin boom is cyclical leverage, not productivity
- Macro vs AI trade tension re-emerging
- AI CapEx as large as WWII spending
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- AI narrative exhausted, semis in dead-money phase
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- Rotation into value laggards: energy & financials
- LPPL as a tactical bubble & crash detection tool
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- Walsh's Fed focused on market reform, not hikes
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- THE TWENTY MINUTE VC · 15 MENTIONS
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- Anthropic positioned to IPO before OpenAI
- Trillion-dollar US open source AI company emerging
- SaaS apocalypse overstated due to entrenchment
- NVIDIA as the likely first $10T company
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- Physical data center infrastructure underhyped
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- Tungsten's strategic value in modern warfare
- Tungsten as a war prediction market
- Tungsten's key property: extreme density and hardness
- China's 80% tungsten supply dominance
- Government floor prices needed for non-Chinese supply
- No futures market cripples tungsten financing
- Scrap and recycling as a supply shock buffer
- PROF G MARKETS · 5 MENTIONS
- Microsoft's enterprise advantage in AI adoption
- Autonomous vehicles as an AI winner
- Apple's licensing fee strategy for AI
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- Private investments distort Big Tech P/E multiples · THIS IDEA
27 EPISODES BETWEEN · 112 MENTIONS
- MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH · 4 MENTIONS
- BANKLESS · 3 MENTIONS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 7 MENTIONS
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- Inflation pressures persist despite oil volatility
- Market underpricing physical goods shortage risk
- AI spending alone no longer enough for market reward
- Diversify away from tech into value and international
- Consumer staples hitting a pricing wall
- Look outside tech to cash-flowing, dividend-paying names
- FORWARD GUIDANCE · 4 MENTIONS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 2 MENTIONS
- WHAT BITCOIN DID · 17 MENTIONS
- The Jacob Fuger portfolio: 25% each asset class
- OpenAI as the AI bubble linchpin
- China's open-source AI as economic warfare
- AI bubble burst triggers fiscal crisis
- Bitcoin as energy-tied neutral reserve asset
- Reshoring will be slow, expensive, chaotic
- Tactical Bitcoin sale on tech correlation
- Bearish long-term bonds on reshoring inflation
- AI sector vulnerable to debt-financed valuation
- Zero percent Bitcoin is the wrong allocation
- Closing the capital account as a nationalist tool
- US superpower status is conditional
- Fed's only escape: zero rates & money printing
- Reshoring beneficiaries: Japan industrials, US electrical infra
- Gold and Bitcoin as currency devaluation hedges
- Hamiltonian economics as the devaluation plan
- AI companies in a bubble, technology is not
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- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 7 MENTIONS
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- MOTLEY FOOL MONEY
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- CNBC FAST MONEY
- MARKETPLACE
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
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- SEC Rule 611 repeal aids on-chain equity trading
- NYSE tokenization project validates on-chain trading
- DTCC's tokenized entitlement is a different, limited model
- Public listing as a tool for crypto M&A
- Robinhood as distribution, not a direct competitor
- Issuer-sponsored tokenization is the legitimate model
- Securitize IPO showcases tokenized equity viability
- Securitize to use IPO proceeds for acquisitions, expansion
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- Offshore tokenized equity derivatives pose major risks
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- Tokenized shares offer superior investor experience
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- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 3 MENTIONS
- MARKETPLACE
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS · 4 MENTIONS
- ANIMAL SPIRITS · 4 MENTIONS
- PROF G MARKETS
- A16Z PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
- BANKLESS · 5 MENTIONS
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- Higher for longer rates due to structural forces
- Deglobalization as a secular inflationary force
- Waiting for an opportunity in Treasuries
- Hyperscaler earnings inflated by paper gains
- Hyperscalers turning free cash flow negative
- Return to active, fundamental stock picking
- Corporate share buyback support evaporating
- AI CapEx boom crowds out Treasury market
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 4 MENTIONS
- WHAT BITCOIN DID · 4 MENTIONS
- THE POMP PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES · 5 MENTIONS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 2 MENTIONS
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD