Software terminal value fears drive historic S&P divergence
The bear case argued for software is that AI disruption fears are crushing terminal value assumptions, causing a historic performance divergence from the broader market despite record earnings.
The argument
The hosts highlighted that the IGV software ETF has experienced a severe drawdown relative to the S&P 500. They argued that while software companies are reporting record earnings, investors are heavily discounting their 5-to-10-year terminal value due to fears of AI-driven disruption and private credit overhangs.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Several consecutive quarters of record earnings failing to lift software stock prices
- ✓Further market share gains by AI-native tools at the expense of legacy SaaS platforms
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Software companies continue to report record earnings and growth in the near term
- ▸The market may eventually realize the AI disruption fears are overblown
Hear it yourself
"And the and the paradigm that we always used was oil going about a hundred and fifty to two hundred a barrel, immediate 10% correction in the S and P 500, big flight to quality in short term fixed income and the dollar."
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