Rivian is poised for a major re-rating
The bull case argued for Rivian is that it is positioned to be one of only two standalone EV makers in the US, with its upcoming midsize model unlocking a massive addressable market.
The argument
The guest argued that Rivian's $15 billion market cap is highly discounted compared to the $35 billion to $40 billion invested to build its technology, brand, and manufacturing capacity. He expects the launch of their $50,000 midsize SUV to scale production to hundreds of thousands of units, driving the company to self-sustaining cash flow and removing dilution fears.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓The midsize model rolling off production lines and generating profitable sales in upcoming quarters
- ✓Achieving run-rate cash flow positivity within the next nine months to eliminate dilution overhang
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Potential dilution if additional capital is required before reaching cash flow positivity
- ▸Execution risk in scaling the new midsize SUV production line
Hear it yourself
"So I'm getting their $35,000,000,000 investment for $15,000,000,000 with at a place where the revenue trajectory is is is about to torque and the market acceptance is because they're gonna you know, the a $50,000 vehicle is gonna has there's a lot more potential consumers than the $100,000 vehicle that I drive."
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