Structural copper deficit supports long-term bull case
The guest argued that copper is entering a structural bull market driven by an inevitable supply deficit, making recent price pullbacks attractive entry points.
The argument
Global copper supply is severely constrained by declining ore grades and a lack of greenfield investment, highlighted by Chile's production hitting a two-decade low. Meanwhile, demand is accelerating due to decarbonization and AI data center buildouts, while global inventories remain critically low at around 15 days of supply.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Global copper inventories falling below 15 days of supply
- ✓Major banks continuing to revise their copper balance forecasts into deeper deficits
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Short-term macro volatility and risk-off market events
- ▸High interest rates dampening global economic activity
Hear it yourself
"I mean, if you look at the two year graph of copper, you take the volatility out of it, and you see that the long term thesis is playing out. Right? And some of the big moves recently, I always talk that that's the fight over the short term vision and the long term vision. The short term vision, is definitely risk on, risk off, or treating copper as doctor copper where certain events like Iran, and then there's some concern over what the world global economy is going to go to happen. But then when it's looking long, it's going well. It's inevitable that we're going to have a significant, supply deficit."
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