The housing shortage narrative is a myth
The guest argued that the pervasive narrative of a critical housing shortage is a myth designed to build an exit ramp for overbuilt developers seeking government bailouts.
The argument
Builders have overbuilt but are keeping inventory off standard listing sites, while industry-supplied data masks the true volume of completed and unsold homes.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Surge in builder concessions or fire sales of institutional rental portfolios
- ✓Public listings of previously unrecorded new construction inventory
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Government programs like the Road to Housing Act successfully absorbing excess builder inventory
- ▸Continued demographic demand keeping pace with hidden supply
Hear it yourself
"Because I heard a story, an anecdote. But anecdotes are really important, you know, about, a gentleman whose father has dementia and is in a home and just refuses to cut his price, even though homes are selling all around him for lower. But it's, you know, I think people are just it's it's a legacy, you know, that something they can leave to their children at the, you know, the proceeds from a sale and things like this. So, but, yeah, you just have this mismatch where buyers are not budging and sellers simply can't afford it."
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