Memory stock surge backed by quadrupled earnings
The fundamental case was argued that the parabolic rise in memory and Korean tech stocks is rational because forward earnings expectations have quadrupled.
The argument
The hosts pointed out that MSCI Korea's 12-month forward EPS surged from 200 to 800 in a month, driven by insatiable AI memory demand. They argued this fundamental shift makes the price action rational rather than a baseless speculative mania, meaning pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities for those who missed the run.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Continued upward revisions in forward EPS for memory chipmakers
- ✓Strong quarterly earnings reports from Micron confirming high-margin AI memory demand
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸High volatility and potential for sharp 40% drawdowns
- ▸Extreme concentration in a few large names like Samsung and SK Hynix
Hear it yourself
"But just mind your your position size. And, and that and that can keep you in the game if you need to stay in the game. And a lot of people, if they're competing with the averages, especially if they're emerging market growth investors, they have to stay in this game. Yeah. 100%. I I Yeah. 100%. That is absolutely right. The the signal is not for shorting. It's for sizing. I think that's the best way to think about it. And, you know, if if you're using volatility to help size, well, you wanna make sure that you recalibrate that."
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