S&P 500 correction probability rises
The guest argued that the S&P 500 is highly vulnerable to a healthy technical correction following an unusually long streak of weekly advances.
The argument
Lance Roberts noted that nine or more consecutive weeks of market gains are historically rare, indicating a pullback is overdue. He pointed to a Fibonacci retracement level of 50% from the recent advance, which would represent a normal 7.5% decline to previous breakout support.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓S&P 500 breaks below short-term moving averages
- ✓The consecutive weekly advance streak halts and reverses
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Strong momentum can keep markets overextended longer than historical averages suggest
- ▸Robust earnings growth could delay a technical pullback
Hear it yourself
"But it has that bubble up feel, that bubble melt up feel, and the fact that you're going on vacation a week from now. I I overlap those two things, and I just in the center of the Venn diagram, I see Lance might not fund vacation. Well, that it it yeah. Hopefully, that won't happen. So Right. Well, I mean, let's let's talk about this, and maybe let's get straight to the, let's let's get straight to the, technical analysis because I realized at the end of last week, we actually never did pull up the chart. So, I wanna make sure folks get that right out of the gate this time. But how concerned are you, if at all, about the the animal spirits right now in the markets? I thought we did the chart last week, but We didn't."
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