Capital goods per job ratio peaks
The guest warned that the recent rollover in the ratio of core capital goods orders to jobs could signal upcoming pressure for the S&P 500.
The argument
Historically, there has been a close relationship between capital investment per job and stock market performance; the ratio recently peaked at an all-time high and began declining in April.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Continued decline in core capital goods orders in subsequent monthly reports
- ✓S&P 500 underperformance following the ratio's downward trend
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸AI-driven capital expenditures could distort historical capital goods metrics
- ▸Stronger-than-expected job growth could offset order declines
Hear it yourself
"So we're really grateful, and our audience is appreciative that, you know, some of the stuff that you're putting out to subscribers, you know, you you are sharing with us, which is which is which is really great. And it's always, you know, very important to get your perspective to help us understand sort of what what we're looking at when we look at these things. And I I'm pretty sure I can say this. We are not gonna be talking about SpaceX or AI in this conversation. Or will we be? Could there have been any comment to AI here or there? But Yeah. That's Facebook."
AFFILIATE LINK · ZORTIX MAY EARN A COMMISSION · NEVER A RECOMMENDATION TO TRADE