TSMBEARISHIn depth · 4/5

US ceded semiconductor leadership to TSMC

The speaker argued that the US allowed semiconductor manufacturing leadership to shift to TSMC in Taiwan, creating a strategic vulnerability that money alone cannot quickly fix, especially regarding risks to Taiwan in 2027.

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 11 MENTIONS · 10 SHOWS

26 AUG 2025 — 10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO

1 SUPPORT · 3 CHALLENGE · 2 UPDATE · 2 REPEAT · 3 MENTIONED

26 AUG 2025 · FIRST HEARD
THE LONG VIEW
- Taiwan conflict's main economic cost: chip disruption
4 EPISODES BETWEEN · 4 MENTIONS
1. 12 SEP 2025 · CHALLENGES
  THE BUSINESS BREW
  - TSMC and ASML as picks in AI compute build-out
2. 18 SEP 2025 · CHALLENGES
  MACROVOICES
  - US-China war risk dissipates, bullish China
3. 21 JAN 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Venezuela move signals green light for Taiwan
4. 19 FEB 2026
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - Taiwan concentration risk amid China tensions
5 MAR 2026
REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- Taiwan's TSMC as the critical AI bottleneck
9 MAR 2026
ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
- Taiwan semiconductor risk as US-China flashpoint
13 MAR 2026
PLANET MICROCAP PODCAST
- Taiwan invasion risk is a chip supply shock
6 APR 2026 · UPDATES
ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
- US ceded semiconductor leadership to TSMC · THIS IDEA
29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · UPDATES
EMPIRE
- AI supply chain bottle-necked by TSMC
10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO · CHALLENGES
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- TSMC as irreplaceable AI lynchpin

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD