Avoid shorting US equities nominally
The guest argued that investors should remain long or neutral on US equities on a nominal basis, preferring them over energy-dependent international markets.
The argument
The US market benefits from strong earnings growth (particularly in the Russell 2000), secular AI tailwinds, and supportive Treasury liquidity management. In contrast, markets like Germany, India, and Australia lack these productivity drivers and are highly exposed to rising oil prices.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓S&P 500 and Russell 2000 holding above the lows established during the previous week's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA)
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸A shift in the yield curve from a bear steepener to a bull steepener or flattener
- ▸Liquidity models turning highly restrictive
Hear it yourself
"But I think, Andrew, you know, sometimes, you know, when you when I read, like, books about the the 1929 crash or the war in twenties, they'd say in, like, in 1927, 1928, there's only one topic of conversation that anyone would bring up at the parties, The US stock market. So I feel like I'm kind of in that. I I have to ask you just your view on US stocks. I know your framework, you look at liquidity, you look at technicals. Yep. And you I think you you've got five pillars. Tell us about the pillar. Yeah. But just certainly on a technical basis, The US stock market has to be overwhelmingly bullish."
03:10
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