Bull market intact despite summer correction risk
The guest argued that while the S&P 500's rare nine-week winning streak signals near-term overbought conditions ripe for a summer correction, the structural bull market remains highly likely to finish the year higher.
The argument
Historical data since 1965 shows that nine-week advances typically lead to short-term pullbacks, but the market is almost always higher 52 weeks later. The guest emphasized that fundamental underpinnings—such as rising earnings and strong liquidity—remain robust, with no signs of credit stress or economic deterioration.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓S&P 500 finishing higher 12 months post-streak
- ✓Earnings estimates continuing to be revised upward
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸A sudden credit event or rising credit spreads
- ▸Unexpected deterioration in corporate earnings or economic data
Hear it yourself
"I hope that's long enough for pictures for the kids. That's awesome. That's all I need. Okay. Alright. Well, look. We're gonna miss you while you're gone, but have yourself a great time there, Lance. Yeah. Alright. I gotta say, usually, when you go on trips, Lance, right, what happens? Well, you know, I have had a bunch of people email me lately saying, Lance, don't go on your vacation because the market's gonna crash. It used to be that case. Like, literally about four or five years ago, I go on vacation and something would happen."
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