BULLISHCore thesis · 5/5

Long oil on Iran standoff escalation risk

The guest argued he is long oil because he finds it difficult to see a resolution to the Iran standoff without escalation, which would be bullish for oil prices.

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 278 MENTIONS · 174 EPISODES · 36 SHOWS

24 JUL 2025 — 20 AUG 2026 · YESTERDAY

136 SUPPORT · 61 CHALLENGE · 3 REPEAT · 78 MENTIONED

24 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
MACROVOICES
- Oil time spread trade over flat price
53 EPISODES BETWEEN · 70 MENTIONS · 114 NOT KEPT
1. 114 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
2. 16 APR 2026
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Fertilizer shortage threatens global famine · CHALLENGES
  - Strait of Hormuz blockade cripples fertilizer supply
3. 16 APR 2026
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - Market relief on Hormuz may be premature · CHALLENGES
  - US Gulf Coast becomes global swing supplier
4. 17 APR 2026
  BANKLESS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Iran war de-escalation lifts US equities
  - US oil export boom from Strait blockade
5. 20 APR 2026
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING · 2 MENTIONS
  - Strait of Hormuz closure manageable for Europe
  - Central bank hike fears overstated amid crisis
6. 20 APR 2026
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 2 MENTIONS
  - Market mispricing Iran deal probability
  - Europe toast on Iran escalation or Trump exit · CHALLENGES
7. 21 APR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - Petrodollar threat accelerates dollar hyperinflation path
8. 21 APR 2026
  THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
  - Geopolitical risk premium missing from oil
9. 22 APR 2026
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - US Gulf Coast becomes global swing supplier
  - Oil market resilience masks physical scarcity
10. 23 APR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Oil demand destruction requires global recession
11. 23 APR 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Iran conflict's profound, multi-commodity disruption
12. 24 APR 2026
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Strait of Hormuz closure threatens global oil supply
  - Iran can force $400 oil, lacks US adult leadership
13. 21 JUL 2026
  PROF G MARKETS
  - Strait of Hormuz escalation pushes crude higher
14. 21 JUL 2026
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY
  - Persian Gulf risk drives long-term oil bypass
15. 22 JUL 2026
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Selling puts on crude oil amidst volatility
16. 23 JUL 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Crude oil structurally anchored around $68-$72
17. 23 JUL 2026
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY
  - Geopolitical risk puts upside pressure on oil
18. 23 JUL 2026
  COMMODITY CULTURE
  - Tiered inventory requires higher oil prices
19. 23 JUL 2026 · CHALLENGES
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Rising oil prices threaten renewed rate hikes
20. 23 JUL 2026
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY
  - Long-term oil structural supply shortage thesis
21. 23 JUL 2026
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - China energy strategy buffers Hormuz disruption
  - Fundamental-driven short squeeze in crude oil
22. 23 JUL 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Middle East escalation drives oil and yields
23. 23 JUL 2026
  THE POMP PODCAST
  - Geopolitical risk premium to elevate long-term crude oil
24. 23 JUL 2026 · CHALLENGES
  WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
  - Rising Treasury yields pressure equity valuations
25. 24 JUL 2026
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Crude oil rallies as Middle East tensions escalate
26. 24 JUL 2026 · CHALLENGES
  WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
  - Prolonged Middle East conflict drives global inflation
27. 24 JUL 2026 · CHALLENGES
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Gas prices pose political risk for midterms
28. 25 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  SMARTERMARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
  - Renewed supply shock risks $150-$200 crude
  - Geopolitical volatility creates structural commodity price noise
  - Chinese crude import cuts defer oil spike
29. 27 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO · CHALLENGES
  PROF G MARKETS
  - U.S. inflation risks escalate on geopolitical supply shocks
30. 27 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Midstream energy resilience amidst oil price volatility
31. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Caution on energy sector despite strong near-term earnings
32. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · CHALLENGES
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Take profits on energy stocks
33. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Energy supply crunch signals impending fuel surge
  - Headwinds reversing to tailwinds for crude oil
34. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Domestic energy security rises on Strait disruption
35. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Bullish thesis on US oil refiners
36. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MACROVOICES
  - Crude oil's bullish structure intact, shorts not covered
37. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 4 MENTIONS
  - Crude oil shortage is a myth
  - Three oil price scenarios on war/peace
  - China as the oil market swing producer
  - US energy independence cushions domestic market
38. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
  - Fuel refining margins at record highs
39. 3 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
  - Middle East 'sinus wave' war losing market relevance
40. 4 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
  - Oil is the most attractive commodity sector
41. 4 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
  MARKETPLACE
  - China's secret oil reserves preventing price spike
42. 5 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  COMMODITY CULTURE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Energy markets a 'no touch' due to political risk
  - Forever war with Iran would sustain high oil
43. 5 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Market desensitized to Middle East tensions
44. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Crude oil premium collapses on D.C. headlines
45. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  COMMODITY CULTURE
  - Supply chain dislocation, inflation spike coming
46. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Oil price capped by SPR draw, China demand
47. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Oil's geopolitical risk premium too low
48. 10 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Straits of Hormuz security shattered
49. 10 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
  - Energy shock is over, oil to chop sideways
50. 10 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Oil stocks resilient despite Middle East uncertainty
51. 13 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Crude rally disappoints despite supply fears
52. 13 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO · CHALLENGES
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Oil price is key inflation risk
53. 14 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO · CHALLENGES
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Crude oil: sell-the-rally market
54. 14 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 3 MENTIONS
  - Oil risk premium was higher in Iran vs Ukraine war
  - Flows as a new geopolitical risk factor
  - Well restarts post-shutdown are uncertain
14 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO · CHALLENGES
MARKETPLACE
- Diesel price spike warns of inflation
16 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- Oil price risk from drained global reserves
17 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO · CHALLENGES
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Middle East conflict seen as long-term, with escalation risk
18 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
PALISADES GOLD RADIO
- Energy sector cheap despite government narrative
18 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 2 MENTIONS
- Long oil on Iran standoff escalation risk · THIS IDEA
- Iran escalation as bearish for US stock market · CHALLENGES
20 AUG 2026 · YESTERDAY · CHALLENGES
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Diesel-induced economic slowdown risk

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD