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S&P 500 historical 30-year floor is high

The guest argued that even when investing at the absolute worst historical peak of September 1929, the S&P 500's worst-ever 30-year rolling return still yielded approximately 8% annualized.

The argument

The discussion highlighted that long-term horizons effectively smooth out extreme short-term volatility, such as the Great Depression and World War II. This historical perspective helps investors maintain discipline during periods of geopolitical or economic crisis.

The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
  • S&P 500 maintaining positive rolling returns over multi-decade horizons
▸ Risks discussed
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results
  • Extended periods of flat or negative real returns can still occur in the short-to-medium term
Hear it yourself
"system that helps reduce the number of decisions that need to be sort of made in in the moment. Like, I'm thinking of, like, you know, it kind of reminds me of the Warren Buffett thing. Like, even though listen, the greatest investor of all time, but he was like, you know, a few great investments are what, you know, drove most of his track record and sort of staying out of I guess it's both, and he's trying to stay out of mistakes as well. I don't know. So I don't know your thoughts on that. I guess you could say"
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