Oil price spikes historically signal stock upside
A rapid 5% two-day gain in crude oil historically acts as a strong bullish signal for the broader stock market over the subsequent twelve months.
The argument
The hosts discussed historical data showing that when crude oil gains at least 5% two days in a row, the S&P 500 has a median 12-month forward return of 22% and an 83% win ratio across prior instances (excluding 2008).
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓S&P 500 trading higher 6 to 12 months following the recent oil spike
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸The current macro setup could mirror the anomalous 2008 period where stocks fell
- ▸Geopolitical escalation could lead to stagflationary pressures that break the historical pattern
Hear it yourself
"So up 22% ServiceNow, up 12 Intuit gained back 22% of its market cap in the last five. Okay. That's interesting. What else is on here? ServiceNow, Workday, Salesforce, Adobe."
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