Superior data lowers Kaspi's credit risk profile
The guest argued that Kaspi's low non-performing loan coverage ratio is justified by its superior consumer data and vital market position, which enable high recovery rates on unsecured loans.
The argument
While an NPL coverage ratio of 78% appears risky compared to peers like MercadoLibre, Kaspi's deep visibility into user salaries and transaction histories allows it to approve 99.9% of loans automatically. Furthermore, because the app is vital for daily life in Kazakhstan, users prioritize repaying Kaspi to avoid losing access.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓NPL ratio remaining stable at or near 6% while growing the loan portfolio over 20% annually
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Unsecured credit book exposure during broader macroeconomic downturns in Kazakhstan
Hear it yourself
"So they approve 99.9% of applications automatically, no person involved in under six seconds. And you can also see that in the NPLs, which is a metric that we always look at, and it's standing for non performing loans."
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