AI bull market has room to run
The current technology-led bull market may have significantly more runway based on historical duration and return averages.
The argument
The hosts argued that at 3.5 years old and a 112% gain, the current bull market is well below the historical averages of 5.5 years and 192% gains. They also highlighted a record 5% two-day return spread of equal-weight QQQ over cap-weight, suggesting the rally is beginning to broaden out.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Sustained outperformance of equal-weight indices over cap-weight indices
- ✓S&P 500 total return tracking toward the historical average of 192% from the October 2022 low
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Historical averages do not guarantee future performance
- ▸Extreme concentration in mega-cap tech could reverse and drag down the broader market
Hear it yourself
"They got back to me. I worked with Tom for two years. He taught me the ways. He taught me how to chart. That's, like, my master Yoda. I was like, this guy, he taught me the ways. And those same charts that I saw him present in the show, I was updating for him a few years later. So it felt amazing. Left Fund Strat in February 2024. A few months later, I reached out to you, Michael. I wanted to be the outsourced chart guy. You welcomed me in graciously. I, I essentially became a research associate at Ritholtz, make all the charts for the podcast now with Sean, started exhibit a, and now we're here."
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