LME copper breakout invalidates COMEX death cross
The bearish 'death cross' technical signal on the COMEX copper chart should be faded because it is an artificial artifact of tariff-related headline volatility rather than true market flow.
The argument
The speakers argued that while the COMEX copper chart (HG) shows an ugly technical pattern due to tariff-driven gaps, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures are breaking out to a one-year high. They noted that copper has been under steady accumulation since the Freeport-McMoRan event, suggesting the underlying physical trend remains bullish.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓LME copper futures sustaining their breakout above the one-year high
- ✓Continued signs of physical copper accumulation
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Lagging nature of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
- ▸Violent short-term retracements
- ▸Further unexpected tariff or trade policy announcements
Hear it yourself
"The observation I wanna really highlight is that when we go to look at the LME futures in copper in London, we have them breaking to a one year high, very clearly bullish at this moment. So I would be very suspect of this copper signal, and I would focus a lot on actually whether or not copper continues to show new signs of accumulation."
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