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Index construction, not funds, drives 'bad timing' cost

In response to research suggesting index funds are 'bad market timers', the guest argued the issue is with index construction methodology, not fund implementation, and that the observed negative abnormal returns on new issues align with the idea that companies issue shares when overvalued.

PWL Capitalon The Rational Reminder Podcast

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The story so far

REVIVED · 56 MENTIONS · 46 EPISODES · 19 SHOWS

31 JUL 2025 — 11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO

10 SUPPORT · 4 CHALLENGE · 10 UPDATE · 2 REPEAT · 30 MENTIONED

31 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
- Stock return dispersion remains high, aiding active managers
- Index construction, not funds, drives 'bad timing' cost · THIS IDEA
39 EPISODES BETWEEN · 48 MENTIONS
1. 7 AUG 2025
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
  - More portfolio handling leads to smaller returns
  - Don't look for the needle, buy the haystack
2. 10 AUG 2025
  CHOOSEFI
  - Broad index funds over stock picking
3. 2 SEP 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Low-cost investing as the core principle
4. 4 SEP 2025 · UPDATES
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Indexing's edge: winners are impossible to identify
5. 11 SEP 2025
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Wisdom-of-crowds TDF as an indexing innovation
6. 30 SEP 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Target date funds praised for retirement simplicity
7. 20 OCT 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - Focus on savings rate over investment returns
8. 23 OCT 2025
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Diversify, minimize fees, don't chase performance
9. 30 OCT 2025
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 3 MENTIONS
  - Index funds capture market returns, avoid active risk
  - Successful investing is capturing market returns · UPDATES
  - Active management faces near-impossible hurdle · CHALLENGES
10. 6 NOV 2025
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Indexing allows for sophisticated portfolio construction
11. 7 NOV 2025
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - Index funds beat stock picking
12. 7 DEC 2025 · UPDATES
  CHOOSEFI · 2 MENTIONS
  - Index funds over individual stocks for beginners
  - Long-term index investing over speculation · CHALLENGES
13. 18 DEC 2025
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
  - Adviser portfolios often random, not diversified
  - The 'ETF slop' problem obscuring simple investing
14. 22 DEC 2025
  CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
  - Mega-cap tech killed active management alpha
15. 1 JAN 2026
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Global diversification as the behavioral challenge
16. 6 JAN 2026
  THE LONG VIEW · 2 MENTIONS
  - Indexing captures concentrated gains · UPDATES
  - Three-fund portfolio as a core satisficer strategy
17. 15 JAN 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Benchmark outperformance is a foolhardy fight
18. 20 JAN 2026
  THE KNOWLEDGE PROJECT · 2 MENTIONS
  - Patience as the key to wealth via index funds
  - Simple index fund investing as optimal strategy
19. 27 JAN 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
  - S&P 500 as the core, passive holding
20. 28 JAN 2026 · UPDATES
  YET ANOTHER VALUE PODCAST
  - Power law returns overstated by index math
21. 29 JAN 2026
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Discipline as the best defense against uncertainty
22. 31 JAN 2026
  AFFORD ANYTHING
  - Beating the market is extremely hard
23. 1 FEB 2026
  WE STUDY BILLIONAIRES - THE INVESTORS PODCAST NETWORK
  - Simple 90/10 index-fund portfolio with rebalancing rule
24. 3 FEB 2026
  AFFORD ANYTHING
  - All-weather portfolio as the antidote
25. 13 FEB 2026
  THE BUSINESS BREW
  - The 'lazy investor' Peter Lynch approach
26. 22 FEB 2026 · UPDATES
  CHOOSEFI
  - The simple path to wealth is the only secret
27. 26 FEB 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Hedge funds are a bad deal for retail
28. 27 FEB 2026
  AFFORD ANYTHING
  - Long-term index fund trajectory remains upward
29. 10 MAR 2026 · UPDATES
  AFFORD ANYTHING
  - Dimensional's factor tilts by removing losers
30. 10 MAR 2026
  THE TIM FERRISS SHOW
  - Invest in Vanguard index funds for lifetime wealth
31. 12 MAR 2026
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Index funds as a superior consumer choice
32. 19 MAR 2026
  CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
  - Active management's underperformance has structural causes
33. 23 MAR 2026
  CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
  - Indexing inherently beats average active manager
34. 16 APR 2026
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
  - Active multi-asset portfolios underperform index benchmarks · CHALLENGES
  - Index funds benefit investors via lower fees
35. 17 APR 2026 · UPDATES
  AFFORD ANYTHING
  - Broad market index funds over stock picking
36. 20 APR 2026
  CAPITAL ALLOCATORS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Total market indexing as the simplest, purest approach
  - Index product selection based on logical, enduring factors
37. 22 APR 2026
  ANIMAL SPIRITS
  - Buy-and-hold as the baseline strategy
38. 22 APR 2026
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
  - High active share key to outperformance
39. 23 APR 2026
  THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  - Index funds' role is to represent the market
28 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
OPTIMAL FINANCE DAILY
- Index funds beat individual stock stock-picking
31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · UPDATES
PROF G MARKETS
- Core advice: index for bulk, speculate small
31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · UPDATES
AFFORD ANYTHING
- Index funds beat active management
2 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
MOTLEY FOOL MONEY
- S&P 500 index funds are now a concentrated AI bet
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
- Indexing wins by capturing the few big winners
11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
THE LONG VIEW
- Diversification as the key to survival

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD