Oil target of $183 on Middle East escalation
The guest argued that oil could reach $183 to $185 a barrel by 2026 if geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates in line with historical cycles.
The argument
The speaker pointed to overlapping 36-year, 45-year, and 90-year cycles that correctly anticipated Iranian conflict. He argued that the 36-year anniversary of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 2026 suggests Middle East tensions will remain a focal point, driving oil prices up and potentially triggering a global recession.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Oil prices breaking out of current ranges as the August 2026 cycle window approaches
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸The target is dependent on a major geopolitical escalation in the Gulf
- ▸Cycles can occasionally cancel each other out or fail to materialize
Hear it yourself
"So, the the short answer, I have a target oil price of 183 to a $185. If we get a huge escalation, I do see it up there. And, I could see that happening sooner rather than later."
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