US equity markets face near-term pullback risk
The guest argued that US equity markets are entering a cautious phase with a potential pullback extending into late July 2026, driven by cycle alignment and smart money outflows.
The argument
The guest observed that the S&P 500 peaked in early June and has since seen a pullback. He noted that commitment of traders data for Dow futures shows smart money is actively leaving US equities, prompting him to adopt a more bearish near-term stance.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓S&P 500 failing to reclaim the June 2nd highs
- ✓A continued downward trend immediately following the July holidays into the third/fourth week of July
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Government intervention to keep markets buoyed ahead of major anniversaries or elections
- ▸A potential year-end rally could compensate for near-term sell-offs
Hear it yourself
"The smart money, both the longs and shorts are decreasing. Smart money is leaving The US equity markets right now, a very big move down. And that in itself, that was the reason I had there for, feeling somewhat more concerned and more bearish after the weekend."
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