DRAM and storage face structural shortages
The guest argued that consolidated supply chains in DRAM and hard disk drives (HDDs) have created a structural supply-demand imbalance that is driving massive earnings growth.
The argument
Unlike past cyclical downturns, the industry has consolidated down to just three major DRAM players and two major HDD players. The guest noted that Western Digital's earnings estimates for 2026/2027 surged from $10 to $25 in a matter of months, proving this is a fundamental structural shift rather than a speculative bubble.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓DRAM pricing maintaining its upward trajectory year-over-year
- ✓Western Digital and Micron meeting or exceeding the revised upward earnings estimates for 2026
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Historically extreme cyclicality of the memory and storage markets
- ▸Potential for capacity additions to eventually overshoot demand
Hear it yourself
"It's my no? He says no. Second. What was did you do Joe Rogan last week or something? What was what was your I don't know. What was it, Scott? What what else Morning star. Oh, Morning star. Alright. Fine. But we're gonna pretend this is your first one. I'm sure it was great. Shout to Morning Star. Year. I'm sure it was terrific. Alright. This this one's gonna this is gonna be a lot of fun, and, I'm so appreciative of you coming and doing this. Are you okay? Yeah. These are kind of uncomfortable. I think you have them on backwards."
05:10
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