No single ticker was named. Industrials ETFs are one way for retail investors to get exposure. Not a recommendation.
Oil shocks historically deter Fed rate hikes
The guest presented data showing that oil-driven price shocks historically make the Federal Reserve less likely to tighten monetary policy.
The argument
Rather than driving broad-based inflation, higher oil prices act as a tax on consumers that dampens demand. Historical trends since the 1980s show the Fed is more responsive to capital goods growth than energy price spikes, and minor rate hikes driven by growth have historically preceded stock market advances.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Core CPI ex-shelter remaining anchored near 2.3%
- ✓The Federal Reserve holding rates steady or implementing minor hikes without disrupting equity markets
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Pass-through of energy costs to core inflation exceeding historical averages
- ▸A return to 1970s-style inflation dynamics driven by unit labor costs
Hear it yourself
"This is this is Josh's softer side. This is how he connects with the audience. No. It's really bad. My the point I was trying to make is I used to have a lot more it's not tolerance. It's patience. I just wanna when I finish something, I wanna be on to the next thing, and the lingering is what Was it an SNL skit with the doctor and the old man that you have EOG? What is EOG? Early onset grumpiness. Did you ever say that? Diagnosed. Yeah. Yeah. The edge, can I get rid of it? No. There's no way you can get rid of it. Why would I not concur? But isn't it better for the Yeah."
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