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Warsh's QT risks repo market blowup

The speaker argued that Kevin Warsh's desire to shrink the Fed's balance sheet (QT) risks breaking something in the financial system, potentially repeating the 2018 repo market blowup.

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 247 MENTIONS · 170 EPISODES · 33 SHOWS

9 JUL 2025 — 17 AUG 2026 · YESTERDAY

69 SUPPORT · 35 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 141 MENTIONED

9 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
GRANT'S CURRENT YIELD PODCAST
- Fade the three Fed rate cuts priced for 2024
60 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
7 FEB 2026
THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- Warsh's QT risks repo market blowup · THIS IDEA
52 EPISODES BETWEEN · 68 MENTIONS · 50 NOT KEPT
1. 50 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
2. 28 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Fed expected to hold rates amid sufficient credibility
3. 28 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 2 MENTIONS
  - Eliminating forward guidance reduces market over-speculation
  - Fed rate hikes needed to anchor long bond yields · CHALLENGES
4. 28 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Federal Reserve rate hike risk underpriced
5. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Fed hawkish descents signal September rate hike
6. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Fed's pause and reduced guidance steepen yield curve
  - Fed communication confusion drives curve steepening
7. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · CHALLENGES
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Fed's pause and curve steepening signal growth
8. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
  - Fed rate pause pressures market interest rates
9. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Fed shifts to laissez-faire guidance and steeper curve
10. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Yield curve steepens on Fed inflation doubts
11. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MARKETPLACE
  - Fed pauses rate hikes amid internal division
12. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Fed's new regime targets money supply
13. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  PROF G MARKETS
  - Fed funds rate to remain on hold
14. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · CHALLENGES
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
  - Overhauling Fed balance sheet strategy and rate cuts
15. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MACROVOICES
  - Inflation persistence keeps long bond yields high
16. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  THE POMP PODCAST
  - Fed should tighten via balance sheet, not rates
17. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BANKLESS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Fed fights inflation via QT, not rate hikes
  - Fed's Warsh keeps rate hikes on the table
18. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE · 4 MENTIONS
  - Market tightening may preclude Fed hikes
  - Balance sheet runoff precedes rate hikes
  - No inherent trade-off between inflation and jobs
  - Rate hikes in 2024 appear less likely
19. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Fed credibility issues over policy inconsistencies
20. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Fed opacity risks increased market volatility
21. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MARKETPLACE
  - Fed credibility questioned on inflation resolve
22. 1 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
  - Path to Fed credibility: hike rates, shrink balance sheet · CHALLENGES
  - Treasury is the dog, Fed is the tail
23. 1 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
  - Fed rate hike bets push Treasury yields up
24. 2 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Walsh's Fed focused on market reform, not hikes
25. 3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  FORWARD GUIDANCE · 3 MENTIONS
  - Fed's new lever: long-end yields over short rates
  - Long-term bond yields may be near a top · CHALLENGES
  - Warsh using balance sheet to tighten long end
26. 3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Market steepening yield curve doing Fed's job
27. 3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  MOTLEY FOOL MONEY
  - Fed credibility loss, not high rates, is the risk
28. 3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Fed balance sheet expansion equivalent to a rate cut
29. 4 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - Fed's narrow policy window risks control loss
30. 4 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
  - Fed behind the curve, facing multiple hikes
31. 5 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Fed's intentional steepening to tighten policy
32. 5 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Rise in long-term yields driven by real yields, not inflation fears
33. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Bond market tightening financial conditions for Fed
34. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 2 MENTIONS
  - Fed should exit mortgage-backed securities
  - Warsh's hawkish reform faces political debt reality
35. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Fed's September hike hinges on inflation data
36. 7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Soft jobs report shifts Fed calculus toward hold
37. 7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Higher yields and steeper curve warranted
38. 7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
  WHAT BITCOIN DID
  - Fed pause, not hike, is the bullish macro setup
39. 7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  MOTLEY FOOL MONEY
  - Jobs report signals Fed inaction
40. 7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  MARKETPLACE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Fed's focus may shift from inflation to jobs
  - FOMC members filling forward guidance vacuum
41. 8 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY
  - Fed rate hike odds recede on weak payrolls
42. 10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH · 2 MENTIONS
  - R-double-star as a financial-stability benchmark
  - Central bank balance sheet debate is multi-dimensional
43. 10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO · CHALLENGES
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
  - Soft US inflation data points to Fed cuts
44. 10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO · CHALLENGES
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Weak jobs data reduces likelihood of Fed hike
45. 10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Market misreading Fed Chair Warsh as dovish
46. 11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
  - Fed credibility on the line, needs September hike
47. 11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Fed should have hiked to preserve optionality
48. 12 AUG 2026 · 6D AGO
  TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
  - Warsh Fed seen as hawkish, curbing inflation expectations
49. 12 AUG 2026 · 6D AGO
  FORWARD GUIDANCE · 5 MENTIONS
  - Kevin Warsh as the credible dove in hawk's clothing
  - Post-Volcker Fed policy has gotten progressively easier
  - Removing Fed forward guidance reduces capital misallocation · CHALLENGES
  - Fed faces dovish structural shift
  - Treasury fair value near 6%
50. 12 AUG 2026 · 6D AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Watch US rates market, not Fed policy
51. 12 AUG 2026 · 6D AGO
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Long-term Treasury yields headed to 6-8%
52. 12 AUG 2026 · 6D AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Fed needs 75 bps of hikes to regain control
53. 13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO · CHALLENGES
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - Warsh Fed brings higher uncertainty, favors gold
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Fed needs a hike to restore credibility
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
MACROVOICES
- Front-end vs long-end bond positioning split
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
MARKETPLACE · 2 MENTIONS
- Fed faces rock and a hard place
- Bond market signaling higher rates
15 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 2 MENTIONS
- Fed rate hike not supported by wage data
- Fed likely on hold, next move a cut not a hike · CHALLENGES
15 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY · 2 MENTIONS
- 30-year yield rise is curve normalization, not vigilantes
- Bill market shows fading Fed hike odds
17 AUG 2026 · YESTERDAY
MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH · 3 MENTIONS

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD