BALANCEDNotable comment · 2/5

Market calm suggests caution on new positions

The host suggested investors 'take a beat' before adding new positions, given the market's exceptionally calm and strong run, implying a potential for a pullback or consolidation.

Bill Ackmanon The Compound and Friends

Sign in to read the full idea

The argument, what validates it, the risks discussed and hearing it from the source are for signed-in members. Free accounts read 3 ideas in full a day. No card required.

The story so far

CONTESTED · 50 MENTIONS · 37 EPISODES · 14 SHOWS

18 JUL 2025 — 21 AUG 2026 · YESTERDAY

16 SUPPORT · 7 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 25 MENTIONED

18 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- Low S&P volatility mutes hedging urgency
30 EPISODES BETWEEN · 41 MENTIONS
1. 19 AUG 2025 · CHALLENGES
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 3 MENTIONS
  - Low realized correlation in S&P is unsustainable
  - S&P 95/80 put spread as reasonably priced protection
  - HYG options compelling after realized vol collapse
2. 21 AUG 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Volatility event likely later in 2024
3. 5 SEP 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Volatility oversupply masks underlying risks
4. 15 SEP 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - S&P options are nominally cheap but carry poorly
5. 26 SEP 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Play single-stock dispersion with low index vol
6. 3 OCT 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Single stocks far more volatile than indices
7. 10 OCT 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - High beta vs low vol outperformance extreme
8. 24 OCT 2025 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Brazilian equity vol cheap for upside calls
9. 28 OCT 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Record VIX EQ-VIX spread signals low correlation
10. 6 NOV 2025
  THE DERIVATIVE
  - Equity volatility as the next whack-a-mole pop
11. 31 DEC 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 3 MENTIONS
  - Stock-up, vol-up dynamic in mega-caps
  - S&P concentration risk from high-vol tech
  - Ultra-low S&P correlation is a vulnerability
12. 8 JAN 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Extreme bullish positioning signals near-term correction risk
13. 15 JAN 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - S&P concentration risk dampens realized volatility
14. 30 JAN 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - High intraday vol signals underlying market stress
15. 6 FEB 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Retail options washout driving single-stock vol
16. 10 FEB 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Market volatility from excessive positioning unwind
17. 25 FEB 2026
  WHAT BITCOIN DID
  - Markets priced for perfection amid global uncertainty
18. 6 MAR 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Late-cycle behavior in US equity markets
19. 6 MAR 2026
  MASTERS IN BUSINESS
  - Policy as the paramount market driver
20. 27 MAR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Rising volatility into high-stakes midterms
21. 2 APR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Low correlation masks S&P 500 volatility risk
22. 3 APR 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Market deleveraged and overhedged, shorting tough
  - Market structure drives violent, newsless moves
23. 10 APR 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Dispersion trade unwinds on macro shock
  - Mega-cap tech vol cheap, a rally opportunity · CHALLENGES
24. 11 APR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS · 3 MENTIONS
  - Sell index vol to fund cheap single-stock calls
  - Volatility premium now gone after VIX crush
  - Call options are cheap with no bullish positioning
25. 27 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Elevated single-stock dispersion signals market caution
26. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 4 MENTIONS
  - The speaker argued that near-zero correlation among stocks is holding index volatility (VIX) down to the mid-teens, even as single-stock volatility (VIX EQ) screams higher, creating a historically wide spread.
  - Record-low stock correlation underpricing index vol risk
  - Integrated risk: correlation, single-stock vol, and cheap insurance
  - AI trade circularity hides true correlation risk
27. 3 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
  - AI vs non-AI stocks as two diverging markets
28. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - VIX's decline reflects market calm
29. 7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Market complacency signaled by VIX-stock vol gap
30. 12 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Market complacent on midterm and geopolitical risks
14 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- AI bull market faces September volatility
14 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 3 MENTIONS
18 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- VIX stuck, lacking catalyst for new lows
18 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
- Market calm suggests caution on new positions · THIS IDEA
20 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Market lacks fear, sees dip as buying opportunity
21 AUG 2026 · YESTERDAY · CHALLENGES
GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
- Cheap index-level options as a macro hedge

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD