BALANCEDIn depth · 4/5

Physical oil shock vs. futures price disconnect

The discussion highlighted a disconnect between the massive physical interruption of oil supply (10-15% of global supply) and the relatively muted reaction in futures prices.

Brad Setseron Odd Lots

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 272 MENTIONS · 169 EPISODES · 36 SHOWS

24 JUL 2025 — 16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO

134 SUPPORT · 58 CHALLENGE · 3 REPEAT · 77 MENTIONED

24 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
MACROVOICES
- Oil time spread trade over flat price
4 EPISODES BETWEEN · 5 MENTIONS · 109 NOT KEPT
1. 109 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
2. 14 APR 2026
  BANKLESS
  - Iran war impact already priced in
3. 14 APR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  ODD LOTS
  - Strait of Hormuz closure hits Asia hardest
4. 15 APR 2026
  ODD LOTS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Stress in physical oil markets vs. complacent equities
  - Strait of Hormuz closure crushes Asian energy supply · CHALLENGES
5. 15 APR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Fed constrained by oil shock and leadership uncertainty
16 APR 2026
ODD LOTS
- Physical oil shock vs. futures price disconnect · THIS IDEA
48 EPISODES BETWEEN · 63 MENTIONS
1. 16 APR 2026
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Fertilizer shortage threatens global famine · CHALLENGES
  - Strait of Hormuz blockade cripples fertilizer supply
2. 16 APR 2026
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - Market relief on Hormuz may be premature · CHALLENGES
  - US Gulf Coast becomes global swing supplier
3. 17 APR 2026
  BANKLESS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Iran war de-escalation lifts US equities
  - US oil export boom from Strait blockade
4. 20 APR 2026
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING · 2 MENTIONS
  - Strait of Hormuz closure manageable for Europe
  - Central bank hike fears overstated amid crisis
5. 20 APR 2026
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 2 MENTIONS
  - Market mispricing Iran deal probability
  - Europe toast on Iran escalation or Trump exit · CHALLENGES
6. 21 APR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - Petrodollar threat accelerates dollar hyperinflation path
7. 21 APR 2026
  THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
  - Geopolitical risk premium missing from oil
8. 22 APR 2026
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - US Gulf Coast becomes global swing supplier
  - Oil market resilience masks physical scarcity
9. 23 APR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Oil demand destruction requires global recession
10. 23 APR 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Iran conflict's profound, multi-commodity disruption
11. 24 APR 2026
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Strait of Hormuz closure threatens global oil supply
  - Iran can force $400 oil, lacks US adult leadership
12. 21 JUL 2026
  PROF G MARKETS
  - Strait of Hormuz escalation pushes crude higher
13. 21 JUL 2026
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY
  - Persian Gulf risk drives long-term oil bypass
14. 22 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Selling puts on crude oil amidst volatility
15. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO · CHALLENGES
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Crude oil structurally anchored around $68-$72
16. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY
  - Geopolitical risk puts upside pressure on oil
17. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  COMMODITY CULTURE
  - Tiered inventory requires higher oil prices
18. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO · CHALLENGES
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Rising oil prices threaten renewed rate hikes
19. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY
  - Long-term oil structural supply shortage thesis
20. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - China energy strategy buffers Hormuz disruption
  - Fundamental-driven short squeeze in crude oil
21. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO · CHALLENGES
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Middle East escalation drives oil and yields
22. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  THE POMP PODCAST
  - Geopolitical risk premium to elevate long-term crude oil
23. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO · CHALLENGES
  WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
  - Rising Treasury yields pressure equity valuations
24. 24 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Crude oil rallies as Middle East tensions escalate
25. 24 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO · CHALLENGES
  WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
  - Prolonged Middle East conflict drives global inflation
26. 24 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO · CHALLENGES
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Gas prices pose political risk for midterms
27. 25 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  SMARTERMARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
  - Renewed supply shock risks $150-$200 crude
  - Geopolitical volatility creates structural commodity price noise
  - Chinese crude import cuts defer oil spike
28. 27 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · CHALLENGES
  PROF G MARKETS
  - U.S. inflation risks escalate on geopolitical supply shocks
29. 27 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Midstream energy resilience amidst oil price volatility
30. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Caution on energy sector despite strong near-term earnings
31. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · CHALLENGES
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Take profits on energy stocks
32. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Energy supply crunch signals impending fuel surge
  - Headwinds reversing to tailwinds for crude oil
33. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Domestic energy security rises on Strait disruption
34. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Bullish thesis on US oil refiners
35. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MACROVOICES
  - Crude oil's bullish structure intact, shorts not covered
36. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 4 MENTIONS
  - Crude oil shortage is a myth
  - Three oil price scenarios on war/peace
  - China as the oil market swing producer
  - US energy independence cushions domestic market
37. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
  - Fuel refining margins at record highs
38. 3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
  - Middle East 'sinus wave' war losing market relevance
39. 4 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
  - Oil is the most attractive commodity sector
40. 4 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
  MARKETPLACE
  - China's secret oil reserves preventing price spike
41. 5 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  COMMODITY CULTURE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Energy markets a 'no touch' due to political risk
  - Forever war with Iran would sustain high oil
42. 5 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Market desensitized to Middle East tensions
43. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Crude oil premium collapses on D.C. headlines
44. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Oil price capped by SPR draw, China demand
45. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  CNBC FAST MONEY
  - Oil's geopolitical risk premium too low
46. 10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Straits of Hormuz security shattered
47. 10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
  - Energy shock is over, oil to chop sideways
48. 10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Oil stocks resilient despite Middle East uncertainty
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Crude rally disappoints despite supply fears
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO · CHALLENGES
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Oil price is key inflation risk
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO · CHALLENGES
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Crude oil: sell-the-rally market
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 3 MENTIONS
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO · CHALLENGES
MARKETPLACE
- Diesel price spike warns of inflation
16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- Oil price risk from drained global reserves

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD