Nintendo selloff nears sentiment bottom
The bullish case for Nintendo argues that its 50% stock decline has priced in short-term DRAM cost pressures and a weak 2026 release slate, setting up a major recovery in 2027.
The argument
The guest noted that while high memory prices and a thin 2026 holiday lineup present near-term headwinds, the long-term outlook remains strong. A highly anticipated Zelda movie, a new 3D Mario game, and the robust Switch 2 console are expected to drive a powerful 2027 recovery.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Official announcement of a major 3D Mario game or Zelda movie release date
- ✓DRAM prices peaking and beginning to decline
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Sustained high DRAM/memory prices hurting hardware margins
- ▸Roblox and Minecraft continuing to capture younger demographic market share
- ▸Management execution risks or delays in key 2027 titles
Hear it yourself
"Botanec stocks in in Japan, or the memory chip stocks in in South Korea, even the, like, the Intel supply chain in Malaysia and Singapore, that's what everyone is focusing on right now. So it's it's almost unbelievable. The the the speed at which the innocence in Korea have gone up, I don't know how much is up, you know, year on year, but it's kind of have tripled at least the KOSPI. So that's happening, and KOSPI is now fifty, sixty percent two memory chip stocks. And I'm noticing also people in Korea are incredibly enthusiastic about these stocks. It almost reminds me a little bit of the 1999 bubble in The US where you had a very few number of, you know, popular growth companies."
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