US equities remain investable despite bubble risks
The guest argued that investors can remain risk-on and overweight US equities because nominal GDP growth remains above 4% and small-cap labor markets show no signs of imminent layoffs.
The argument
The guest explained that while valuation and bubble risks are real, nominal economic variables matter most for markets. Because small businesses (via the NFIB survey) are still struggling to find quality labor rather than planning layoffs, a near-term labor market shock or recession is unlikely, justifying an overweight stance.
The thesis, stress-tested
✓ What validates it
- ✓Nominal GDP growth prints consistently above 4%
- ✓NFIB survey indicators show continued labor quality concerns rather than job cuts
▸ Risks discussed
- ▸Nominal US GDP growth falling below 4%
- ▸Small-cap margins continuing to deteriorate to the point of forcing labor layoffs
Hear it yourself
"One, because we're in an environment where we think you're gonna get above 4% nominal GDP growth. And one of the other lessons that we learned the hard way in 2023 is that as macro people, we were looking at real variables. But actually, from an investment perspective, it was nominal things that matter."
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