BALANCEDSubstantive discussion · 3/5

Midterms priced for a split Congress

The speaker argued the market consensus is priced in for a split Congress - a Republican Senate and a Democratic House - which has normalized the volatility term structure.

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The story so far

OPEN · 7 MENTIONS · 4 EPISODES · 3 SHOWS

27 JUL 2026 — 12 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO

5 SUPPORT · 2 REPEAT

27 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · FIRST HEARD
CNBC FAST MONEY
- Elevated single-stock dispersion signals market caution
31 JUL 2026 · 2W AGO
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 2 MENTIONS
- The speaker argued that near-zero correlation among stocks is holding index volatility (VIX) down to the mid-teens, even as single-stock volatility (VIX EQ) screams higher, creating a historically wide spread.
- Integrated risk: correlation, single-stock vol, and cheap insurance
7 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
CNBC FAST MONEY
- Market complacency signaled by VIX-stock vol gap
12 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 3 MENTIONS
- Market complacent on midterm and geopolitical risks
- Midterms priced for a split Congress · THIS IDEA
- Midterm election vol priced out

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD