4-5% 10-year yield is the healthy 'old normal'
The speaker argued that a 10-year Treasury yield between 4% and 5% is a healthy, bullish level that indicates free capital markets, not a threat.
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The story so far
CONTESTED · 859 MENTIONS · 263 EPISODES · 51 SHOWS
21 JUL 2026 — 9 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
848 SUPPORT · 11 CHALLENGE
- PROF G MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
41 EPISODES BETWEEN · 166 MENTIONS · 203 NOT KEPT
- 203 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- MARKETPLACE
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS · 5 MENTIONS
- FORWARD GUIDANCE
- ANIMAL SPIRITS · 6 MENTIONS
- PROF G MARKETS
- COMMODITY CULTURE
- A16Z PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
- BANKLESS · 5 MENTIONS
- ART OF INVESTING
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 9 MENTIONS
- Microsoft's AI monetization inflection point
- AI as a picks-and-shovels compute trade
- AI's tertiary impact on industrial and energy
- Consumer AI revolution hinges on Apple
- AI capex ROI validates the tech rally
- Industrials benefit from dual capex tailwinds
- Tech valuations are historically low relative
- AI's primary bottleneck is energy supply
- Midstream energy as the connective AI infrastructure
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 9 MENTIONS
- Higher for longer rates due to structural forces
- Deglobalization as a secular inflationary force
- Increased exposure to the energy sector
- Waiting for an opportunity in Treasuries
- Hyperscaler earnings inflated by paper gains
- Hyperscalers turning free cash flow negative
- Return to active, fundamental stock picking
- Corporate share buyback support evaporating
- AI CapEx boom crowds out Treasury market
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 4 MENTIONS
- WHAT BITCOIN DID · 4 MENTIONS
- THE POMP PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES · 5 MENTIONS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 3 MENTIONS
- THE TWENTY MINUTE VC · 2 MENTIONS
- ODD LOTS · 9 MENTIONS
- Yen intervention needs BOJ rate hikes to work
- Yen fundamentals point to undervaluation
- Asian currency weakness defies massive trade surpluses
- Japan's fiscal position better than perceived
- Short yen is a long US fiscal bet
- US intervention rationale: support friend, avoid Asia destabilization
- Market memory of Japan's lost decade lingers
- Yen intervention to re-establish fear at 160
- Yen undervalued on fundamental measures
- COMMODITY CULTURE · 3 MENTIONS
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 7 MENTIONS
- UNCHAINED
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 2 MENTIONS
- EXCESS RETURNS · 11 MENTIONS
- Fed under Warsh to unwind excess reserve regime
- Labor market bifurcation signals economic stress
- AI compresses wages for mediocre work
- Capital cycle and crowding stock framework
- VPX ETF: Adaptive sector tilts via capital cycle
- AI profit pool broadening to adopters
- Semis cyclicality narrative in late-stage diffusion
- Sovereign competition may elongate AI investment cycle
- Inflation driven by supply shock, not underlying pressure
- K-shaped economy mutes inflation, supports growth
- Fed unlikely to hike due to political capital
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 4 MENTIONS
- MACROVOICES · 8 MENTIONS
- Crude oil's structural floor from inventory deficit
- Broad metals breakout signals hard asset rotation
- Fed independence preserved but politicized
- Yen intervention blindsided extreme speculative shorts
- Long-term disinflation with transient spikes
- Infrastructure layer still has runway
- Value transfer from labor to capital fueling unrest
- Gold as ultimate safety amid systemic meltdown
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 4 MENTIONS
- THE DERIVATIVE
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 6 MENTIONS
- MOTLEY FOOL MONEY
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- CNBC FAST MONEY
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY · 3 MENTIONS
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY · 3 MENTIONS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES · 5 MENTIONS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 6 MENTIONS
- FORWARD GUIDANCE · 7 MENTIONS
- ODD LOTS · 7 MENTIONS
- Sustainable certification as a supply moat
- Moroccan sardine export ban creates supply shock
- Moroccan sardine export ban spurs premium demand
- Premium tinned fish as a high-growth US category
- European canneries as a scalable supply chain
- Chinese canneries as an alternative supply source
- US canning industry hollowed out by globalization
- PROF G MARKETS · 12 MENTIONS
- AI unit economics lack economies of scale
- Scalable AI is low-margin, mass market
- AI market anxiety not permanently priced in
- Big Tech's shift to capital-intensive manufacturing
- Mag 7 insulated by strong balance sheets
- Lesser AI companies face debt-driven failure
- Apple's cautious, low-CapEx AI outlier strategy
- Leasing compute signals AI demand overestimation
- Lack of AI business model transparency spooks markets
- China's low-cost LLMs as a disruptive threat
- AI revenue overly reliant on shaky LLM builders
- Parallels to dot-com bubble correction
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS · 7 MENTIONS
- AI hardware demand pull-forward unsustainable
- Hyperscaler debt issuance a concerning signal
- Roaring 2020s thesis driven by tech resilience
- 4-5% 10-year yield is the healthy 'old normal' · THIS IDEA
- AI as evolutionary, driving productivity gains
- No recession through end of decade
- Earnings growth sustainable, not a bubble
11 EPISODES BETWEEN · 35 MENTIONS
- BANKLESS · 2 MENTIONS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 2 MENTIONS
- WHAT BITCOIN DID · 9 MENTIONS
- Bitcoin bottom likely in after Q2 ETF capitulation
- AI as a real estate-like, CapEx-intensive business
- Hyperscalers as a proxy for private AI
- Capital rotation from AI stocks to Bitcoin in Q4
- Aggressive accumulation warranted by on-chain data
- Hash rate decline bullish for remaining miners
- AI liquidity drain caused Bitcoin's underperformance
- Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI is permanent
- Four-year cycle's explanatory power debated
- BARRON'S STREETWISE · 2 MENTIONS
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY · 8 MENTIONS
- Open-weight models commoditize frontier AI
- Hyperscalers subsidize AI, index vulnerable
- Software moat evaluation post-AI
- Meta's AI strategy floundering, capital allocation questioned
- AI drives 'bring your own power' energy theme
- China's competitive threat to semiconductor incumbents
- Data center dispersion boosts bandwidth needs
- Smart Optics for inter-data center connectivity
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 2 MENTIONS
- MOTLEY FOOL MONEY
- MASTERS IN BUSINESS · 2 MENTIONS
- CNBC FAST MONEY
- ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG · 5 MENTIONS
- THE POMP PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- THE TWENTY MINUTE VC
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 10 MENTIONS
- Fed must appease bond market or face 6% yields
- Market correction likely on Fed policy shift
- Fed must tighten to save bond market
- Fed must regain inflation credibility
- Structural Treasury supply-demand imbalance
- Higher yields crowd out private sector
- Treasury's dovish financing may bail out markets
- Political sustainability of economic model
- AI CapEx crowding out government debt
- Productivity surge enables dovish pivot
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD