Tactical rate timing is a loser's game
The guest argued that consistently timing interest rate moves or swapping between bonds and cash is extremely difficult and has historically led to poor investor outcomes.
Sign in to read the full idea
The argument, what validates it, the risks discussed and hearing it from the source are for signed-in members. Free accounts read 3 ideas in full a day. No card required.
The story so far
CONTESTED · 206 MENTIONS · 114 EPISODES · 29 SHOWS
30 JUN 2025 — 15 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
85 SUPPORT · 8 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 111 MENTIONED
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- 29 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- THE LONG VIEW · 2 MENTIONS
- Active bond management's edge in inefficiencies
- Tactical rate timing is a loser's game · THIS IDEA
52 EPISODES BETWEEN · 91 MENTIONS · 25 NOT KEPT
- 25 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS · 2 MENTIONS
- THE LONG VIEW
- THE DERIVATIVE · 3 MENTIONS
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
- WE STUDY BILLIONAIRES - THE INVESTORS PODCAST NETWORK
- THE MEB FABER SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS · 6 MENTIONS
- Fee focus on net returns, not absolute levels
- Pay for alpha, not beta or luck in alternatives
- Flexible portfolio with elevated cash for downturn optionality
- Forward-looking factor-based portfolio construction
- Manager selection via disaggregation, paying only for skill
- Private equity tilted to venture, small buyout
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS · 4 MENTIONS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS · 3 MENTIONS
- THE MEB FABER SHOW
- WHAT BITCOIN DID
- AFFORD ANYTHING
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
- THE LONG VIEW · 3 MENTIONS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
- YET ANOTHER VALUE PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS · 5 MENTIONS
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS · 2 MENTIONS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
- THE LONG VIEW
- FORWARD GUIDANCE
- MASTERS IN BUSINESS
- THE DERIVATIVE · 3 MENTIONS
- THE MEB FABER SHOW · 3 MENTIONS
- MASTERS IN BUSINESS
- THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
- THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 6 MENTIONS
- Illiquidity as a trade-off for smoothed volatility
- Private vs public real estate performance parity
- Private market sales pitch: higher return, lower risk
- Core critique: private assets' risk/return promise flawed
- Private equity's diversification and return claims questioned
- Illiquidity premium debate: compensation vs overpayment
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
- EXCESS RETURNS · 2 MENTIONS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS · 2 MENTIONS
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
- THE MEB FABER SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
- ANIMAL SPIRITS · 2 MENTIONS
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
- PLANET MICROCAP PODCAST
- EXCESS RETURNS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
- THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
- THE DERIVATIVE
- MASTERS IN BUSINESS · 2 MENTIONS
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS · 2 MENTIONS
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED · 2 MENTIONS
- THE DERIVATIVE
- THE MEB FABER SHOW
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
- WE STUDY BILLIONAIRES - THE INVESTORS PODCAST NETWORK
- FORWARD GUIDANCE · 2 MENTIONS
- THE MEB FABER SHOW
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD