Economic expansions do not die of old age
Research across four centuries of US and UK data indicates that economic expansions do not accumulate internal excesses that cause them to die of old age.
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The story so far
CONTESTED · 8 MENTIONS · 3 EPISODES · 3 SHOWS
22 JUL 2026 — 29 JUL 2026 · 1W AGO
5 SUPPORT · 1 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- EXCESS RETURNS
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED · 6 MENTIONS
- Recessions impair rather than enhance creative destruction
- Economic expansions do not die of old age · THIS IDEA
- Economy follows the pluck model, not oscillation
- Financial crises do not slow US/UK recoveries
- Energy supply shocks remain primary recession drivers
- China rare earth export limits threaten macroeconomic shock · CHALLENGES
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD