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Modernizing macro business cycle indicators
The speaker argued that traditional recession indicators fail because tech and equipment investment have replaced manufacturing and housing as the main drivers of the US economy.
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The story so far
CONTESTED · 8 MENTIONS · 3 EPISODES · 3 SHOWS
22 JUL 2026 — 29 JUL 2026 · 1W AGO
5 SUPPORT · 1 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- EXCESS RETURNS
- Modernizing macro business cycle indicators · THIS IDEA
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED · 6 MENTIONS
- Recessions impair rather than enhance creative destruction
- Economic expansions do not die of old age
- Economy follows the pluck model, not oscillation
- Financial crises do not slow US/UK recoveries
- Energy supply shocks remain primary recession drivers
- China rare earth export limits threaten macroeconomic shock · CHALLENGES
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD