Strait of Hormuz closure risks $200+ oil
The bearish case argued: a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would create the largest energy supply shock in history, forcing a demand destruction scenario that could push Brent crude to $250-$300 a barrel.
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The story so far
CONTESTED · 272 MENTIONS · 169 EPISODES · 36 SHOWS
24 JUL 2025 — 16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
134 SUPPORT · 58 CHALLENGE · 3 REPEAT · 77 MENTIONED
- MACROVOICES
- 70 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY · 14 MENTIONS
- Strait of Hormuz closure risks $200+ oil · THIS IDEA · CHALLENGES
- Iran war creates 400M barrel inventory hole
- Even optimistic oil scenario has $90 floor
- Hormuz closure creates $200 crude arbitrage
- Refined product crisis hits Asia first
- Physical oil market to drag futures higher
- Brent-WTI spread widens on geographic shock
- Risk of US refined product export bans
- Oil price must spike to destroy demand
- Strategic oil reserves are a finite bridge
- Resolution hinges on Trump declaring victory · CHALLENGES
- Facility attacks are the nightmare scenario
- Strait may not return to normal post-war
- Limited offsets to Hormuz blockage
52 EPISODES BETWEEN · 68 MENTIONS · 39 NOT KEPT
- 39 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- ODD LOTS
- ODD LOTS · 2 MENTIONS
- EXCESS RETURNS
- ODD LOTS
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
- MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
- BANKLESS · 2 MENTIONS
- REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING · 2 MENTIONS
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 2 MENTIONS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO
- MACROVOICES
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
- PROF G MARKETS
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- COMMODITY CULTURE
- EXCESS RETURNS
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- THE POMP PODCAST
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- SMARTERMARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
- PROF G MARKETS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- MACROVOICES
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 4 MENTIONS
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
- REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- MARKETPLACE
- COMMODITY CULTURE · 2 MENTIONS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- CNBC FAST MONEY
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO
- REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 3 MENTIONS
- MARKETPLACE
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD