Private credit's opaque risk echoes subprime
The bear case argued: the private credit market is an opaque, under-regulated segment with growing signs of stress, reminiscent of the subprime mortgage crisis setup, posing a systemic risk to the broader financial system.
Sign in to read the full idea
The argument, what validates it, the risks discussed and hearing it from the source are for signed-in members. Free accounts read 3 ideas in full a day. No card required.
The story so far
CONTESTED · 147 MENTIONS · 87 EPISODES · 31 SHOWS
24 JUL 2025 — 16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
79 SUPPORT · 33 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 33 MENTIONED
- THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
21 EPISODES BETWEEN · 33 MENTIONS · 27 NOT KEPT
- 27 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- THE INSIGHT BY OAKTREE CAPITAL · 3 MENTIONS
- THE LONG VIEW
- ANIMAL SPIRITS · 2 MENTIONS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS · 2 MENTIONS
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS · 2 MENTIONS
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- FORWARD GUIDANCE
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS · 2 MENTIONS
- THE POMP PODCAST
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- ANIMAL SPIRITS · 4 MENTIONS
- REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- THE KNOWLEDGE PROJECT
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS · 3 MENTIONS
- THE POMP PODCAST
- THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
- EXCESS RETURNS · 2 MENTIONS
- MACROVOICES
- Private credit's opaque risk echoes subprime · THIS IDEA
31 EPISODES BETWEEN · 51 MENTIONS
- BUSINESS BREAKDOWNS · 3 MENTIONS
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES · 6 MENTIONS
- Private credit's illiquidity premium
- Private credit's software exposure: insulated by credit structure
- Retail private credit outflows: contained, not systemic
- Caution on software ARR loans
- Institutional private credit: opportunity as spreads widen
- Junior capital strategies to benefit from refinancing needs
- THE MEMO BY HOWARD MARKS · 2 MENTIONS
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 3 MENTIONS
- EXCESS RETURNS · 3 MENTIONS
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY · 2 MENTIONS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS · 4 MENTIONS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- FORWARD GUIDANCE
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS · 3 MENTIONS
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY · 3 MENTIONS
- THE MEMO BY HOWARD MARKS
- FINTECH INSIDER PODCAST BY 11:FS
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
- THE BUSINESS BREW
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- MOTLEY FOOL MONEY
- ODD LOTS
- CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY · 2 MENTIONS
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD