ConceptExplored in depth · 4/5

IRGC's power peaked in 2013, now waning

The guest argued the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' power and regional influence peaked around 2013 after securing a contiguous sphere of influence to the Mediterranean, but has been on a wane since, accelerated by strategic failures after October 7.

Sign in to read the full idea

The argument, what validates it, the risks discussed and hearing it from the source are for signed-in members. Free accounts read 3 ideas in full a day. No card required.

The story so far

CONTESTED · 88 MENTIONS · 49 EPISODES · 20 SHOWS

23 AUG 2025 — 16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO

21 SUPPORT · 4 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 61 MENTIONED

23 AUG 2025 · FIRST HEARD
SMARTERMARKETS
- Iran nuclear conflict not conclusively resolved
4 DEC 2025
MACROVOICES
- Venezuela no-fly zone as Trump negotiation tactic
10 JAN 2026
SMARTERMARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
- Ukraine war at critical inflection point
- Maduro capture as a signal to the 'axis of resistance'
26 JAN 2026
THE GRANT WILLIAMS PODCAST · 10 MENTIONS
39 EPISODES BETWEEN · 67 MENTIONS
1. 3 FEB 2026
  EMPIRE · 4 MENTIONS
  - Iranian regime faces existential internal threat
  - Iranian protests coalesce around exiled crown prince
  - Currency crash unified opposition against regime
  - 1979 Carter-Shah visit backfired spectacularly
2. 5 FEB 2026
  EMPIRE · 3 MENTIONS
  - Iranian uprising speed dwarfs 1979 revolution
  - Shift in opposition seeking foreign aid
  - Revolutionary Guard as a criminal mafia state
3. 5 FEB 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Iran regime collapse is a regional disaster
4. 19 FEB 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Trump's Iran brinkmanship as negotiation tactic
5. 23 FEB 2026
  BIGGERPOCKETS REAL ESTATE PODCAST
  - Geopolitical risk from Iran unsettles Saudi Arabia
6. 6 MAR 2026
  THE BUSINESS BREW · 3 MENTIONS
  - Assassination strategy risks creating worse leaders
  - China as a boogeyman avoids US accountability
  - Missed window for Iranian regime change
7. 6 MAR 2026
  ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
  - Iran conflict as leverage for China grand bargain
8. 7 MAR 2026
  THE POMP PODCAST
  - Geopolitical moves tied to AI and rare earths
9. 7 MAR 2026
  SMARTERMARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Iranian drone capabilities as escalating threat
  - Conflict endgame hinges on US definition of success
10. 9 MAR 2026
  ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG · 2 MENTIONS
  - Iran war driven by Bibi's obsession
  - US military demonstration as China leverage
11. 10 MAR 2026
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
  - US-Iran conflict as US-China proxy war
  - Market mispricing Iran war as quick win or taco
12. 10 MAR 2026
  WHAT BITCOIN DID
  - Iran conflict a strategic draw at best
13. 12 MAR 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Targeting desalination plants as a regional nuclear option
14. 13 MAR 2026
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY · 3 MENTIONS
  - US-Iran war aims differ in existential importance
  - Conflict accelerates global nuclear proliferation
  - Regime change in Iran seen as highly unlikely
15. 13 MAR 2026
  ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG · 2 MENTIONS
  - Trump doctrine: limited goals, shorter war duration
  - Political risk for Trump if war drags on
16. 14 MAR 2026
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - $100 oil could cost Republicans the midterms
17. 17 MAR 2026
  EMPIRE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Current Iran-US crisis decades in the making
  - Iranian regime's internal crises more critical than external conflict
18. 19 MAR 2026
  EMPIRE · 3 MENTIONS
  - Iran's proxy playbook born in 1980s Lebanon
  - Axis of resistance severely weakened post-leadership losses
  - Iran's 1979 revolution birthed regional proxy militia model
19. 19 MAR 2026
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - Iran conflict weakens US, aligns China
20. 19 MAR 2026
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Base case: 'Trump Taco' ends the war
21. 20 MAR 2026
  EMPIRE · 3 MENTIONS
  - War shifting Iranian public sentiment toward patriotism
  - Negotiated endgame most likely for Iran conflict
  - Netanyahu instrumental in pushing US toward war
22. 24 MAR 2026
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - Iran conflict nearing end, bullish for oil downside
23. 26 MAR 2026
  THE GRANT WILLIAMS PODCAST · 4 MENTIONS
  - China's grand strategy: using Russia and Iran as proxies
  - Iran close to a nuclear weapon breakout
  - Chinese hypersonic weapons proliferation to Iran
  - US air war strategy ineffective against Iran
24. 26 MAR 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Geopolitical realignment pressure on Europe
25. 28 MAR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Iran's Strait control is a revealed fact
26. 2 APR 2026
  THE GRANT WILLIAMS PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
  - Trump's war calculus: playing for history
  - Energy pressure as a tool against Europe
27. 7 APR 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Energy choke point accelerates deglobalization · CHALLENGES
  - Conflict spillover risks from Ukraine to Russia
28. 8 APR 2026
  ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
  - Trump's Iran war as a failed, undefined mission
29. 13 APR 2026
  ODD LOTS
  - Iran emerges as a regional power post-war
30. 13 APR 2026
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
  - Strait of Hormuz blockade as negotiation tactic
31. 14 APR 2026
  COMMODITY CULTURE
  - US-Iran war as a desperate gambit
32. 16 APR 2026
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Iran's 500-1000 mile space-based killing zone
  - War escalation risks global energy complex disaster
33. 16 APR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  MACROVOICES
  - US blockade shifts pressure to Iran, worsens global deficit
34. 18 APR 2026
  COMMODITY CULTURE
  - Extended US-Iran war as US hegemony bid
35. 20 APR 2026
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 4 MENTIONS
  - China's strategic backing of Iran
  - Trump's lame-duck focus on Iran legacy
  - Trump's war powers clock is ticking
  - Europe most vulnerable to escalated conflict
36. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MACROVOICES
  - Drone swarm warfare shifts military balance
37. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Water infrastructure as Iran's pressure point
38. 4 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Iran war is a protracted 3D chess match
39. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Middle East war is regional and not over
  - China benefits from Persian Gulf realignment · CHALLENGES
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
MACROVOICES
- Iran war as a long, inconclusive Vietnam
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- U.S. has already lost the Iran war
11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Strait of Hormuz closure pressures Iran's weak economy
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- Iran war a losing game of chicken for US
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- U.S. Middle East oil security cornerstone broken
16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 2 MENTIONS
- Iran's regional dominance through asymmetric warfare
- Iran strategy likely to de-escalate, not expand

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD