BEARISHIn depth · 4/5

Base case: 'Trump Taco' ends the war

The guest's base case is that the untenable economic consequences will force a de-escalation, most likely via a 'Trump Taco' where the US pressures Israel to stop and unilaterally ceases attacks, leading to a negotiated reopening of the Strait.

Rory Johnstonon Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 88 MENTIONS · 49 EPISODES · 20 SHOWS

23 AUG 2025 — 16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO

21 SUPPORT · 4 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 61 MENTIONED

23 AUG 2025 · FIRST HEARD
SMARTERMARKETS
- Iran nuclear conflict not conclusively resolved
22 EPISODES BETWEEN · 48 MENTIONS
1. 4 DEC 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - Venezuela no-fly zone as Trump negotiation tactic
2. 10 JAN 2026
  SMARTERMARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Ukraine war at critical inflection point
  - Maduro capture as a signal to the 'axis of resistance'
3. 26 JAN 2026
  THE GRANT WILLIAMS PODCAST · 10 MENTIONS
  - Iranian regime collapse risks regional fragmentation
  - Iran regime decay, not collapse
  - US aims to drive wedge between IRGC and army
  - IRGC's power peaked in 2013, now waning
  - Watch Iran's military dynamics for regime stability
  - US and Israeli actions as external wildcards
  - 2015 nuclear deal was a tactical respite, not surrender
  - Regional powers see threat and opportunity in Iran's weakness
  - Current protests fueled by IRGC's strategic failure, economic pain
  - Iran's strategic culture shaped by western threats
4. 3 FEB 2026
  EMPIRE · 4 MENTIONS
  - Iranian regime faces existential internal threat
  - Iranian protests coalesce around exiled crown prince
  - Currency crash unified opposition against regime
  - 1979 Carter-Shah visit backfired spectacularly
5. 5 FEB 2026
  EMPIRE · 3 MENTIONS
  - Iranian uprising speed dwarfs 1979 revolution
  - Shift in opposition seeking foreign aid
  - Revolutionary Guard as a criminal mafia state
6. 5 FEB 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Iran regime collapse is a regional disaster
7. 19 FEB 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Trump's Iran brinkmanship as negotiation tactic
8. 23 FEB 2026
  BIGGERPOCKETS REAL ESTATE PODCAST
  - Geopolitical risk from Iran unsettles Saudi Arabia
9. 6 MAR 2026
  THE BUSINESS BREW · 3 MENTIONS
  - Assassination strategy risks creating worse leaders
  - China as a boogeyman avoids US accountability
  - Missed window for Iranian regime change
10. 6 MAR 2026
  ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
  - Iran conflict as leverage for China grand bargain
11. 7 MAR 2026
  THE POMP PODCAST
  - Geopolitical moves tied to AI and rare earths
12. 7 MAR 2026
  SMARTERMARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Iranian drone capabilities as escalating threat
  - Conflict endgame hinges on US definition of success
13. 9 MAR 2026
  ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG · 2 MENTIONS
  - Iran war driven by Bibi's obsession
  - US military demonstration as China leverage
14. 10 MAR 2026
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
  - US-Iran conflict as US-China proxy war
  - Market mispricing Iran war as quick win or taco
15. 10 MAR 2026
  WHAT BITCOIN DID
  - Iran conflict a strategic draw at best
16. 12 MAR 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Targeting desalination plants as a regional nuclear option
17. 13 MAR 2026
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY · 3 MENTIONS
  - US-Iran war aims differ in existential importance
  - Conflict accelerates global nuclear proliferation
  - Regime change in Iran seen as highly unlikely
18. 13 MAR 2026
  ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG · 2 MENTIONS
  - Trump doctrine: limited goals, shorter war duration
  - Political risk for Trump if war drags on
19. 14 MAR 2026
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - $100 oil could cost Republicans the midterms
20. 17 MAR 2026
  EMPIRE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Current Iran-US crisis decades in the making
  - Iranian regime's internal crises more critical than external conflict
21. 19 MAR 2026
  EMPIRE · 3 MENTIONS
  - Iran's proxy playbook born in 1980s Lebanon
  - Axis of resistance severely weakened post-leadership losses
  - Iran's 1979 revolution birthed regional proxy militia model
22. 19 MAR 2026
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - Iran conflict weakens US, aligns China
19 MAR 2026
MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
- Base case: 'Trump Taco' ends the war · THIS IDEA
19 EPISODES BETWEEN · 31 MENTIONS
1. 20 MAR 2026
  EMPIRE · 3 MENTIONS
2. 24 MAR 2026
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - Iran conflict nearing end, bullish for oil downside
3. 26 MAR 2026
  THE GRANT WILLIAMS PODCAST · 4 MENTIONS
4. 26 MAR 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Geopolitical realignment pressure on Europe
5. 28 MAR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Iran's Strait control is a revealed fact
6. 2 APR 2026
  THE GRANT WILLIAMS PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
  - Trump's war calculus: playing for history
  - Energy pressure as a tool against Europe
7. 7 APR 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Energy choke point accelerates deglobalization · CHALLENGES
  - Conflict spillover risks from Ukraine to Russia
8. 8 APR 2026
  ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
  - Trump's Iran war as a failed, undefined mission
9. 13 APR 2026
  ODD LOTS
  - Iran emerges as a regional power post-war
10. 13 APR 2026
  REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
  - Strait of Hormuz blockade as negotiation tactic
11. 14 APR 2026
  COMMODITY CULTURE
  - US-Iran war as a desperate gambit
12. 16 APR 2026
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Iran's 500-1000 mile space-based killing zone
  - War escalation risks global energy complex disaster
13. 16 APR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  MACROVOICES
  - US blockade shifts pressure to Iran, worsens global deficit
14. 18 APR 2026
  COMMODITY CULTURE
  - Extended US-Iran war as US hegemony bid
15. 20 APR 2026
  WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 4 MENTIONS
16. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MACROVOICES
  - Drone swarm warfare shifts military balance
17. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Water infrastructure as Iran's pressure point
18. 4 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO
  - Iran war is a protracted 3D chess match
19. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
  - Middle East war is regional and not over
  - China benefits from Persian Gulf realignment · CHALLENGES
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
MACROVOICES
- Iran war as a long, inconclusive Vietnam
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- U.S. has already lost the Iran war
11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Strait of Hormuz closure pressures Iran's weak economy
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- Iran war a losing game of chicken for US
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- U.S. Middle East oil security cornerstone broken
16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 2 MENTIONS
- Iran's regional dominance through asymmetric warfare
- Iran strategy likely to de-escalate, not expand

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD