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SPYBEARISHSubstantive discussion · 3/5

S&P 500 faces a decade of flat or negative returns

The thesis presented was that S&P 500 valuations are at or near historic highs, suggesting the index could be flat for the next ten years with a risk of a ~50% drawdown.

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The story so far
CONTESTED · 51 MENTIONS · 41 EPISODES · 18 SHOWS
4 JUL 2025 — 13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
21 SUPPORT · 9 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 19 MENTIONED
  1. 4 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
    THE MEB FABER SHOW
  2. 28 EPISODES BETWEEN · 36 MENTIONS
    1. 14 AUG 2025
      THE MEMO BY HOWARD MARKS
    2. 5 SEP 2025
      BARRON'S STREETWISE
    3. 9 SEP 2025
      THE LONG VIEW
    4. 19 SEP 2025 · CHALLENGES
      GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
    5. 7 OCT 2025
      THE LONG VIEW
    6. 10 OCT 2025
      THE MEB FABER SHOW
    7. 17 OCT 2025 · CHALLENGES
      GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
    8. 18 NOV 2025
      THE BUSINESS BREW
    9. 21 NOV 2025
      THE MEB FABER SHOW · 4 MENTIONS
    10. 22 DEC 2025
      CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
    11. 23 DEC 2025 · CHALLENGES
      THE LONG VIEW
    12. 24 DEC 2025
      MACROVOICES
    13. 1 JAN 2026
      THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 3 MENTIONS
    14. 13 JAN 2026 · CHALLENGES
      GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
    15. 15 JAN 2026
      THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
    16. 27 JAN 2026
      GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES · 2 MENTIONS
    17. 29 JAN 2026
      THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
    18. 30 JAN 2026
      BARRON'S STREETWISE
    19. 2 FEB 2026
      THE MEB FABER SHOW
    20. 3 FEB 2026
      THE MEB FABER SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
    21. 6 FEB 2026
      BARRON'S STREETWISE
    22. 9 FEB 2026
      THE MEB FABER SHOW
    23. 13 FEB 2026
      THE MEB FABER SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
    24. 17 FEB 2026 · CHALLENGES
      GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
    25. 25 FEB 2026
      THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
    26. 5 MAR 2026
      MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
    27. 30 MAR 2026
      REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
    28. 3 APR 2026
      BARRON'S STREETWISE
  3. 9 APR 2026
    THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
    • S&P 500 faces a decade of flat or negative returns · THIS IDEA
  4. 5 EPISODES BETWEEN · 7 MENTIONS
    1. 16 APR 2026
      THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
    2. 19 APR 2026
      EXCESS RETURNS · 2 MENTIONS
    3. 22 APR 2026
      EXCESS RETURNS
    4. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
      EXCESS RETURNS
    5. 25 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
      EXCESS RETURNS
  5. 6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
    THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
  6. 7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
    THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
  7. 8 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
    EXCESS RETURNS
  8. 9 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
    WE STUDY BILLIONAIRES - THE INVESTORS PODCAST NETWORK
  9. 11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
    THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  10. 13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
    THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE · A SUMMARY OF WHAT WAS SAID ON THE PODCAST · VERIFY AGAINST THE SOURCE