BALANCEDSubstantive discussion · 3/5

Inflation to persist near 3%, second wave risk low

The guest argued inflation is likely to remain above target around 3% annualized, but the risk of a second major inflation wave is currently low.

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 35 MENTIONS · 29 EPISODES · 15 SHOWS

24 JUL 2025 — 3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO

10 SUPPORT · 4 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 19 MENTIONED

24 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
MACROVOICES
- Tariffs as a revenue and negotiating tool
10 EPISODES BETWEEN · 12 MENTIONS
1. 5 AUG 2025
  THE KNOWLEDGE PROJECT · 2 MENTIONS
  - Tariffs causing US production offshoring, not onshoring
  - Potential massive tariff refunds if Trump loses lawsuit · CHALLENGES
2. 13 AUG 2025
  THE BUSINESS BREW
  - Tariffs likely to persist regardless of court rulings
3. 21 AUG 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Tariffs to ripple through prices with a lag
4. 25 AUG 2025
  MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH · 2 MENTIONS
  - Inflation impulse from tariffs is coming · CHALLENGES
  - Markets slow to price tariffs and inflation risk
5. 2 SEP 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Tariffs priced in, no recession expected
6. 4 SEP 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - Radical tax restructuring via tariff revenue
7. 5 SEP 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - Inflation worries growing but not yet realized
8. 26 SEP 2025
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - Current US inflation pressures from deficits and tariffs
9. 6 OCT 2025
  MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
  - Inflation stickiness a primary Fed concern
10. 14 OCT 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Tariffs slow growth, raise prices short-term
16 OCT 2025
MACROVOICES
- Inflation to persist near 3%, second wave risk low · THIS IDEA
11 EPISODES BETWEEN · 14 MENTIONS
1. 28 OCT 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Weaponization of US economic policy tools
2. 13 NOV 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - US-China decoupling is painful but inevitable
3. 26 NOV 2025
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - Secular inflation onset likely a year or two off · CHALLENGES
  - Inflation cycle confusion creates risk and opportunity
4. 4 DEC 2025
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - Trump may unilaterally cut China tariffs
  - US-China detente, not Japan conflict, is key
5. 15 DEC 2025
  MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
  - Tariffs slow growth, raise prices with lag
6. 18 DEC 2025
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - Anti-China reindustrialization as a global supply shock
7. 18 DEC 2025
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - Tariffs: disruption deferred, not avoided
  - Midterm elections: affordability is central issue
8. 29 DEC 2025
  MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
  - Trade war impact less severe than feared
9. 6 JAN 2026
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Tariff impact less severe than feared
10. 13 JAN 2026 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
  - Above-consensus US growth on fiscal tailwinds
11. 10 MAR 2026
  THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
  - Midterm losses limit Trump's fiscal options
11 MAR 2026
FORWARD GUIDANCE
- Tariffs as the new normal post-2028
31 MAR 2026
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- Trump's unilateralism tests dollar privilege
8 APR 2026
ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
- Trump tariffs driving up consumer and farm costs
29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
PROF G MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
- Tariffs and geopolitical conflict act as supply shocks
- Section 301 tariffs weaken trade negotiations
30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- Inflation as a monetary phenomenon
3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- US inflation softening due to tariff rebates

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD