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Midterm losses limit Trump's fiscal options

The speaker argued that the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and Trump's limited influence over the Fed make new fiscal or monetary stimulus before the midterms very unlikely.

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 35 MENTIONS · 29 EPISODES · 15 SHOWS

24 JUL 2025 — 3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO

10 SUPPORT · 4 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 19 MENTIONED

24 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
MACROVOICES
- Tariffs as a revenue and negotiating tool
21 EPISODES BETWEEN · 26 MENTIONS
1. 5 AUG 2025
  THE KNOWLEDGE PROJECT · 2 MENTIONS
  - Tariffs causing US production offshoring, not onshoring
  - Potential massive tariff refunds if Trump loses lawsuit · CHALLENGES
2. 13 AUG 2025
  THE BUSINESS BREW
  - Tariffs likely to persist regardless of court rulings
3. 21 AUG 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Tariffs to ripple through prices with a lag
4. 25 AUG 2025
  MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH · 2 MENTIONS
  - Inflation impulse from tariffs is coming · CHALLENGES
  - Markets slow to price tariffs and inflation risk
5. 2 SEP 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Tariffs priced in, no recession expected
6. 4 SEP 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - Radical tax restructuring via tariff revenue
7. 5 SEP 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - Inflation worries growing but not yet realized
8. 26 SEP 2025
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - Current US inflation pressures from deficits and tariffs
9. 6 OCT 2025
  MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
  - Inflation stickiness a primary Fed concern
10. 14 OCT 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Tariffs slow growth, raise prices short-term
11. 16 OCT 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - Inflation to persist near 3%, second wave risk low
12. 28 OCT 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Weaponization of US economic policy tools
13. 13 NOV 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - US-China decoupling is painful but inevitable
14. 26 NOV 2025
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - Secular inflation onset likely a year or two off · CHALLENGES
  - Inflation cycle confusion creates risk and opportunity
15. 4 DEC 2025
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - Trump may unilaterally cut China tariffs
  - US-China detente, not Japan conflict, is key
16. 15 DEC 2025
  MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
  - Tariffs slow growth, raise prices with lag
17. 18 DEC 2025
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - Anti-China reindustrialization as a global supply shock
18. 18 DEC 2025
  MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
  - Tariffs: disruption deferred, not avoided
  - Midterm elections: affordability is central issue
19. 29 DEC 2025
  MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
  - Trade war impact less severe than feared
20. 6 JAN 2026
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Tariff impact less severe than feared
21. 13 JAN 2026 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
  - Above-consensus US growth on fiscal tailwinds
10 MAR 2026
THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- Midterm losses limit Trump's fiscal options · THIS IDEA
11 MAR 2026
FORWARD GUIDANCE
- Tariffs as the new normal post-2028
31 MAR 2026
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- Trump's unilateralism tests dollar privilege
8 APR 2026
ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
- Trump tariffs driving up consumer and farm costs
29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
PROF G MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
- Tariffs and geopolitical conflict act as supply shocks
- Section 301 tariffs weaken trade negotiations
30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- Inflation as a monetary phenomenon
3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- US inflation softening due to tariff rebates

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD