BALANCEDIn depth · 4/5

Structural distress from LBO boom

The guest argued a structural, not episodic, distress opportunity exists due to the massive LBO volume built during low rates, creating a market with $1 trillion of high-yield and levered loans maturing that cannot all refinance.

Sign in to read the full idea

The argument, what validates it, the risks discussed and hearing it from the source are for signed-in members. Free accounts read 3 ideas in full a day. No card required.

The story so far

CONTESTED · 82 MENTIONS · 57 EPISODES · 22 SHOWS

14 AUG 2025 — 16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO

44 SUPPORT · 11 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 25 MENTIONED

14 AUG 2025 · FIRST HEARD
THE MEMO BY HOWARD MARKS
- Credit as a defensive holding in lofty markets
5 EPISODES BETWEEN · 9 MENTIONS
1. 15 AUG 2025
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - Agency MBS offer attractive spread over corporates
2. 21 AUG 2025
  THE INSIGHT BY OAKTREE CAPITAL · 4 MENTIONS
3. 2 SEP 2025
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Deficit scenario favors fixed income
4. 19 SEP 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Be a liquidity provider in an illiquid market
  - Convertible bond market's three sources of value
5. 26 SEP 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - High-yield credit bet on 'no recession'
9 OCT 2025
THE INSIGHT BY OAKTREE CAPITAL · 3 MENTIONS
- Real estate debt as a value play post-recession
- Credit market haves vs have-nots dispersion
- Structural distress from LBO boom · THIS IDEA
44 EPISODES BETWEEN · 61 MENTIONS
1. 10 OCT 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - Yield curve shape drives relative asset returns
2. 14 OCT 2025
  THE INSIGHT BY OAKTREE CAPITAL
  - Credit's role enhanced in a higher-rate world
3. 14 OCT 2025
  THE MEMO BY HOWARD MARKS
  - Credit's role enhanced in new rate regime
4. 31 OCT 2025 · CHALLENGES
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
  - Capital structures broken by rate surge
5. 7 NOV 2025
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - Diversify US Treasury exposure with foreign bonds
6. 13 NOV 2025
  THE INSIGHT BY OAKTREE CAPITAL · 4 MENTIONS
  - Sectoral niches in private credit offer yield premium
  - CLO BB tranches offer excess spread
  - RMBS discount offers technical upside on rate cuts
  - European credit offers relative value
7. 13 NOV 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - High yield spreads artificially tight on supply crunch
8. 25 NOV 2025
  THE LONG VIEW · 2 MENTIONS
  - Passive fixed income's limited breadth
  - Derivatives as a tool for bond market efficiency
9. 11 DEC 2025
  THE BUSINESS BREW
  - Diversified BB credit as a resilient asset class
10. 16 DEC 2025
  THE LONG VIEW · 4 MENTIONS
  - Municipal bonds offer lower long-term volatility
  - Finding value in tainted sectors: healthcare, higher ed
  - Muni/Treasury ratio guides entry points and value
  - Absolute muni yields are attractive long-term
11. 19 DEC 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Stay invested in bonds for 2026
  - Prefer duration yield over tight credit spreads
12. 29 DEC 2025
  CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
  - The 'sea change' to a higher-rate lending environment
13. 6 JAN 2026
  THE LONG VIEW
  - T-bills as attractive portfolio insurance
14. 9 JAN 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Corporate credit spreads tighten due to supply crunch
15. 13 JAN 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES
  - Credit risk-reward less favorable than equities
16. 14 JAN 2026
  THE INSIGHT BY OAKTREE CAPITAL · 2 MENTIONS
  - Construction and chemicals sectors bottoming, offering selective value
  - European credit offers diversification and spread premium
17. 26 JAN 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE MEB FABER SHOW
  - Corporate credit spreads are dangerously narrow
18. 27 JAN 2026
  AFFORD ANYTHING
  - T-bills more attractive in higher rate environment
19. 30 JAN 2026
  MASTERS IN BUSINESS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Fixed income's return to favor
  - Active management's edge in fixed income
20. 2 FEB 2026
  CAPITAL ALLOCATORS · 3 MENTIONS
  - Diameter's all-weather credit approach as portfolio ballast
  - COVID pivot: short travel, then buy high-quality credit
  - Be native, not a tourist, in credit markets
21. 10 FEB 2026
  THE LONG VIEW · 2 MENTIONS
  - Investors shifting from cash to longer-duration bonds
  - Bonds provide income and ballast in a higher yield era
22. 19 FEB 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Avoid corporate credit, own 'risk-free' rates instead
23. 4 MAR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Credit risk mispriced across default, liquidity, volatility
24. 6 MAR 2026
  MASTERS IN BUSINESS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Bonds back as attractive income source
  - Agency MBS over investment grade corporates
25. 9 MAR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - CLOs provide diversified, protected loan exposure
26. 27 MAR 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Prefer bonds over stocks in current climate
27. 31 MAR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Corporate credit protection cheap in US risk scenario
28. 6 APR 2026
  ANIMAL SPIRITS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Utility preferreds as equity-credit arbitrage
  - Diversification as the fixed income 'free lunch'
29. 6 APR 2026
  CAPITAL ALLOCATORS
  - Private credit dislocation opportunities emerging
30. 7 APR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Corporate credit: attractive income, low duration risk
  - Prefer credit risk over rate risk in flat curve
31. 8 APR 2026
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Non-agency mortgage strategy highly attractive
32. 21 APR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY
  - Short duration in a rising rate cycle
33. 21 APR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE LONG VIEW
  - Underweight credit due to tight spreads, high correlation
34. 24 APR 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Corporate credit health masks government balance sheet risk
35. 22 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Lock in high yields before cash rates fall
36. 23 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  THOUGHTFUL MONEY
  - Credit spreads signal market complacency
37. 24 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
  BARRON'S STREETWISE
  - Credit offers carry yield despite tight spreads
38. 27 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · CHALLENGES
  THE DIVIDEND CAFE
  - Widening CCC spreads highlight growing credit risk
39. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  ANIMAL SPIRITS
  - Bearish consensus on bonds may be overdone
40. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO · CHALLENGES
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Bonds fail as portfolio diversifiers against inflation
41. 30 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
  - Wait for wide credit spreads before buying bonds
  - Compressed bond yield spreads lack margin of safety · CHALLENGES
42. 3 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Private credit via diversified ETF structure
43. 7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Credit spreads offer little value, pose jump risk
44. 7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO · CHALLENGES
  BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
  - Credit spreads are tight with jump risk
7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
BARRON'S STREETWISE · 3 MENTIONS
7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
CNBC FAST MONEY
- Prefer shorter duration over credit for income
10 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- Credit spread tightening signals risk-on shift
11 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Active short-term management beats T-bills
12 AUG 2026 · 6D AGO
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Risk-reward improving for fixed income
16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- High-quality corporate credit over sovereign debt

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD