Zortix matched this thesis to Agriculture ETFs as the exposure the bearish case argues against, most actionable for readers who already hold them. Not a recommendation.
Iran conflict's low-probability, high-impact tail risk
The guest argued that while a prolonged US-Israel conflict with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is not his base case, its 5-7% probability represents a catastrophic tail risk for global markets.
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The story so far
CONTESTED · 272 MENTIONS · 169 EPISODES · 36 SHOWS
24 JUL 2025 — 16 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
134 SUPPORT · 58 CHALLENGE · 3 REPEAT · 77 MENTIONED
- MACROVOICES
- 45 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- THE BUSINESS BREW
- Iran conflict's low-probability, high-impact tail risk · THIS IDEA
52 EPISODES BETWEEN · 68 MENTIONS · 64 NOT KEPT
- 64 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- ODD LOTS
- ODD LOTS · 2 MENTIONS
- EXCESS RETURNS
- ODD LOTS
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
- MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
- BANKLESS · 2 MENTIONS
- REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING · 2 MENTIONS
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 2 MENTIONS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO
- MACROVOICES
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
- PROF G MARKETS
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- COMMODITY CULTURE
- EXCESS RETURNS
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- THE POMP PODCAST
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- SMARTERMARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
- PROF G MARKETS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 2 MENTIONS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- MACROVOICES
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO · 4 MENTIONS
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
- REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- MARKETPLACE
- COMMODITY CULTURE · 2 MENTIONS
- THE DIVIDEND CAFE
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- CNBC FAST MONEY
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO
- REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 3 MENTIONS
- MARKETPLACE
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD