Fed policy bimodal: four cuts or none
The guest's view on the Fed was that the market's expectation of two cuts this year represents a bimodal distribution of outcomes: either four cuts if the labor market weakens significantly, or no cuts at all.
Keep reading this one
You've read the thesis and who argued it. A free account opens the argument, what validates it, the risks the show raised, and the moment in the episode where it was said — 3 ideas in full a day, no card.
The Callback
Structural shifts reduce US economic recession frequency
10 weeks between these two statements.
The guest argued the Federal Reserve faces an agonizing decision on a December rate cut, with the labor market's weakness unclear and inflation still well above target.
The guest's view on the Fed was that the market's expectation of two cuts this year represents a bimodal distribution of outcomes: either four cuts if the labor market weakens significantly, or no cuts at all.