Zortix matched this thesis to Rates & bonds ETFs as the exposure the bearish case argues against, most actionable for readers who already hold them. Not a recommendation.
Market overestimating probability of 2026 rate cuts
The guest's view is that the market is overestimating the likelihood of multiple rate cuts in 2026, arguing he would 'take the under' relative to market expectations.
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The Callback
Fed's pause and reduced guidance steepen yield curve
13 weeks between these two statements.
The guest's base case is for the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively than the market currently expects, potentially starting with a 50 basis point cut in September.
The guest's view is that the market is overestimating the likelihood of multiple rate cuts in 2026, arguing he would 'take the under' relative to market expectations.