US equity market implies impossible macro outcomes
The guest argued that aggregating the bullish cases for S&P 500 companies implies macroeconomic growth outcomes that are 'ludicrous' and 'more or less impossible', defining this as a bubble.
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The story so far
CONTESTED · 249 MENTIONS · 158 EPISODES · 36 SHOWS
3 JUL 2025 — 20 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
123 SUPPORT · 23 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 101 MENTIONED
- THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
53 EPISODES BETWEEN · 83 MENTIONS · 98 NOT KEPT
- 98 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
- WHAT BITCOIN DID
- EXCESS RETURNS
- COMMODITY CULTURE
- THE POMP PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
- EXCESS RETURNS · 5 MENTIONS
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- PALISADES GOLD RADIO
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- ANIMAL SPIRITS
- EXCESS RETURNS
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED · 2 MENTIONS
- THE MEB FABER SHOW
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- EXCESS RETURNS · 3 MENTIONS
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 3 MENTIONS
- MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH
- REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
- PROF G MARKETS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED · 3 MENTIONS
- FORWARD GUIDANCE
- EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY
- THE POMP PODCAST
- PROF G MARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- MACROVOICES · 2 MENTIONS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
- ODD LOTS
- THE BEST EVER CRE SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
- THE MEB FABER SHOW · 3 MENTIONS
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT · 2 MENTIONS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 2 MENTIONS
- EXCESS RETURNS · 5 MENTIONS
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW
- THOUGHTFUL MONEY
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- THE JULIA LA ROCHE SHOW · 2 MENTIONS
- COMMODITY CULTURE · 2 MENTIONS
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE · 2 MENTIONS
- WEALTHION - BE FINANCIALLY RESILIENT
- MARKETPLACE
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
- WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
- MARKETPLACE
- COMMODITY CULTURE · 3 MENTIONS
- EXCESS RETURNS · 2 MENTIONS
- THE DERIVATIVE
- US equity market implies impossible macro outcomes · THIS IDEA
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY · 10 MENTIONS
- Industrial metals on reshoring, grid build-out
- Dollar reserve status must end for reshoring
- AI CapEx and deficits driving long-end yields higher
- Treasury buybacks as soft yield curve control
- Fed's Warsh constrained by math, not a hawk
- AI CapEx boom will end in a bust
- Gold as the primary hedge against treasury market stress
- Gold to outperform equities over the medium term
- Own industrials, short bonds in gold terms
- War bullish for stocks in dollars, gold in real terms
- MACROVOICES · 5 MENTIONS
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD