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MSFTSFTBYBALANCED

Zortix matched this thesis to OpenAI’s public holders (MSFT, SFTBY, AMZN, NVDA) as one way public-market investors are exposed to it. Stakes as disclosed or reported. Not a recommendation.

Where these come from — OpenAI’s exposure, as disclosed or reported
MSFTMicrosoft — about 27% of OpenAI Group PBC (reported); roughly $13bn invested since 2019. · as of Aug 2026 · Press reporting (The Motley Fool, 2026-08-13)
SFTBYSoftBank Group — about 11.7% (reported), financed in part by a $40bn bridge loan maturing March 2027. · as of Aug 2026 · Press reporting (The Motley Fool, 2026-08-13)
AMZNAmazon — preferred stock in OpenAI, carried together with its Anthropic preferred at a $122.3bn combined carrying value as of 30 June 2026. · as of 30 Jun 2026 · Amazon 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (filed 2026-07-31)
NVDANvidia — letter of intent to invest up to $100bn progressively as compute is deployed (September 2025). · as of Sep 2025 · Company announcement, 2025-09-22

AI labs as compute-constrained alchemists

The guest argued that AI labs like OpenAI operate unlike normal businesses, with revenue being a direct function of where they allocate scarce compute, not pure demand forecasting.

Keep reading this one

You've read the thesis and who argued it. A free account opens the argument, what validates it, the risks the show raised, and the moment in the episode where it was said — 3 ideas in full a day, no card.

The Callback

Open source LLMs squeeze frontier lab margins

27 weeks between these two statements.

Then

The guest argued his primary concern with OpenAI is not the improbability of its growth forecast, but the founder's inability to articulate a coherent business model explaining how to achieve it.

THE MEB FABER SHOW · 27 FEB 2026 · 13:30Open in Zortix →
Now

The guest argued that AI labs like OpenAI operate unlike normal businesses, with revenue being a direct function of where they allocate scarce compute, not pure demand forecasting.

PROF G MARKETS · 3 SEP 2026 · 1W AGO · 1:05:05
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