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MSFTSFTBYBEARISHSubstantive discussion · 3/5

Zortix matched this thesis to OpenAI’s public holders (MSFT, SFTBY, AMZN, NVDA) as the exposure the bearish case argues against, most actionable for readers who already hold them. Stakes as disclosed or reported. Not a recommendation.

Where these come from — OpenAI’s exposure, as disclosed or reported
MSFTMicrosoft — about 27% of OpenAI Group PBC (reported); roughly $13bn invested since 2019. · as of Aug 2026 · Press reporting (The Motley Fool, 2026-08-13)
SFTBYSoftBank Group — about 11.7% (reported), financed in part by a $40bn bridge loan maturing March 2027. · as of Aug 2026 · Press reporting (The Motley Fool, 2026-08-13)
AMZNAmazon — preferred stock in OpenAI, carried together with its Anthropic preferred at a $122.3bn combined carrying value as of 30 June 2026. · as of 30 Jun 2026 · Amazon 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (filed 2026-07-31)
NVDANvidia — letter of intent to invest up to $100bn progressively as compute is deployed (September 2025). · as of Sep 2025 · Company announcement, 2025-09-22

AI to dominate creative content and media

The guest argued AI will likely dominate and optimize creative fields like music, movies, and social media content because it can experiment infinitely and is trained on all existing human output.

Keep reading this one

You've read the thesis and who argued it. A free account opens the argument, what validates it, the risks the show raised, and the moment in the episode where it was said — 3 ideas in full a day, no card.

The story so far
CONTESTED · 360 MENTIONS · 212 EPISODES · 48 SHOWS
4 JUL 2025 — 26 AUG 2026 · YESTERDAY
83 SUPPORT · 9 CHALLENGE · 1 REPEAT · 267 MENTIONED
  1. 4 JUL 2025 · FIRST HEARD
    THE MEB FABER SHOW
  2. 53 EPISODES BETWEEN · 81 MENTIONS · 152 NOT KEPT
    1. 152 EPISODES NOT SHOWN
    2. 20 APR 2026
      BANKLESS · 2 MENTIONS
    3. 20 APR 2026
      THE MEB FABER SHOW
    4. 21 APR 2026
      ODD LOTS
    5. 22 APR 2026
      THE KNOWLEDGE PROJECT · 4 MENTIONS
    6. 22 APR 2026
      A16Z PODCAST
    7. 21 JUL 2026
      THE KNOWLEDGE PROJECT
    8. 21 JUL 2026
      WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
    9. 24 JUL 2026
      PROF G MARKETS
    10. 31 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
      A16Z PODCAST
    11. 31 JUL 2026 · 4W AGO
      MASTERS IN BUSINESS
    12. 1 AUG 2026 · 4W AGO
      THE TWENTY MINUTE VC
    13. 2 AUG 2026 · 4W AGO
      A16Z PODCAST · 3 MENTIONS
    14. 3 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      THE TWENTY MINUTE VC
    15. 4 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      THE KNOWLEDGE PROJECT
    16. 4 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      A16Z PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
    17. 5 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      ANIMAL SPIRITS
    18. 6 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      THE TWENTY MINUTE VC
    19. 7 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      YET ANOTHER VALUE PODCAST
    20. 7 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
    21. 8 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
    22. 8 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      THE TWENTY MINUTE VC · 2 MENTIONS
    23. 9 AUG 2026 · 3W AGO
      ON THE MARGIN · 2 MENTIONS
    24. 10 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      THE TWENTY MINUTE VC
    25. 10 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      A16Z PODCAST · 3 MENTIONS
    26. 10 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      BIGGERPOCKETS REAL ESTATE PODCAST
    27. 10 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
    28. 11 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 2 MENTIONS
    29. 11 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      EXCESS RETURNS
    30. 11 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      THE POMP PODCAST
    31. 12 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      A16Z PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
    32. 13 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      A16Z PODCAST
    33. 14 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      WHAT BITCOIN DID
    34. 14 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      WSJ WHAT'S NEWS
    35. 15 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      THOUGHTFUL MONEY · 2 MENTIONS
    36. 15 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      THE POMP PODCAST
    37. 15 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      THE TWENTY MINUTE VC · 4 MENTIONS
    38. 16 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
      WHAT BITCOIN DID
    39. 17 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
      A16Z PODCAST · 2 MENTIONS
    40. 17 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
      THE TWENTY MINUTE VC
    41. 19 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
      ART OF INVESTING
    42. 19 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
      ART OF INVESTING · 2 MENTIONS
    43. 20 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
      ODD LOTS · 3 MENTIONS
    44. 20 AUG 2026 · 1W AGO
      THE DERIVATIVE
    45. 21 AUG 2026 · 6D AGO
      ALL-IN WITH CHAMATH, JASON, SACKS & FRIEDBERG
    46. 22 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
      AFFORD ANYTHING
    47. 22 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
      UNCHAINED
    48. 22 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
      THE POMP PODCAST
    49. 22 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
      A16Z PODCAST
    50. 24 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
      REAL VISION DAILY BRIEFING
    51. 24 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
      THE TWENTY MINUTE VC · 2 MENTIONS
    52. 24 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
      MACRO MUSINGS WITH DAVID BECKWORTH · 5 MENTIONS
    53. 24 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
      BANKLESS
    54. 24 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
      GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES · 3 MENTIONS
  3. 24 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
    MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY · 3 MENTIONS
  4. 24 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
    THE POMP PODCAST · 7 MENTIONS
  5. 24 AUG 2026 · 3D AGO
    THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
  6. 25 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
    THE RATIONAL REMINDER PODCAST · 3 MENTIONS
  7. 25 AUG 2026 · 2D AGO
    A16Z PODCAST
  8. 26 AUG 2026 · YESTERDAY
    ANIMAL SPIRITS
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD
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NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE · A SUMMARY OF WHAT WAS SAID ON THE PODCAST · VERIFY AGAINST THE SOURCE