Inverted vol term structure can be a trap
The discussion warned that selling long-dated vol at a discount during an inverted term structure (e.g., selling 1-year at 90 vol when front-month is 110) is often a trap, as the longer-dated vol may be more statistically extreme.
Sign in to read the full idea
The argument, what validates it, the risks discussed and hearing it from the source are for signed-in members. Free accounts read 3 ideas in full a day. No card required.
The story so far
CONTESTED · 77 MENTIONS · 42 EPISODES · 16 SHOWS
30 JUN 2025 — 14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
18 SUPPORT · 7 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 50 MENTIONED
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 7 MENTIONS
- Dealer gamma positioning suppresses volatility
- Market structure proved sound in April 2024 stress
- Vol risk premium vanished post-2012 · CHALLENGES
- Vol response depends on positioning, not just magnitude
- Low vol doesn't mean cheap; simple rules fail
- Put-spread collar is just short delta · CHALLENGES
- August 5 VIX spike was a technical mirage
22 EPISODES BETWEEN · 35 MENTIONS
- GRANT'S CURRENT YIELD PODCAST
- THE DERIVATIVE
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
- MACROVOICES
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 2 MENTIONS
- THE DERIVATIVE · 5 MENTIONS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
- THE DERIVATIVE
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 3 MENTIONS
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- FORWARD GUIDANCE
- WHAT BITCOIN DID
- THE DERIVATIVE
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
- MASTERS IN BUSINESS
- THE DERIVATIVE · 4 MENTIONS
- FORWARD GUIDANCE
- GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 6 MENTIONS
12 EPISODES BETWEEN · 18 MENTIONS
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
- THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
- EXCESS RETURNS
- MACROVOICES
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
- EXCESS RETURNS · 5 MENTIONS
- ANIMAL SPIRITS · 2 MENTIONS
- MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 2 MENTIONS
- TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 4 MENTIONS
- THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 3 MENTIONS
HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD