BALANCEDSubstantive discussion · 3/5

Relative value preferred over directional bets

The guest stated their commodity traders predominantly prefer relative value and spread trades, which are viewed as more fundamental and lower risk than pure directional bets.

Tom Hollidayon The Derivative

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The story so far

CONTESTED · 77 MENTIONS · 42 EPISODES · 16 SHOWS

30 JUN 2025 — 14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO

18 SUPPORT · 7 CHALLENGE · 2 REPEAT · 50 MENTIONED

30 JUN 2025 · FIRST HEARD
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 7 MENTIONS
8 EPISODES BETWEEN · 16 MENTIONS
1. 9 JUL 2025
  GRANT'S CURRENT YIELD PODCAST
  - Gold and Bitcoin share rising volatility trait
2. 31 JUL 2025
  THE DERIVATIVE
  - Defined-risk options for cattle event risk
3. 3 OCT 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 3 MENTIONS
4. 10 OCT 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Use low volatility to buy convexity hedges
5. 16 OCT 2025
  MACROVOICES
  - Convex bet on dollar strength via euro puts
6. 22 OCT 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 2 MENTIONS
  - Not all printed commodity vol is tradable
  - Financialization creates signatures in commodity vol
7. 6 NOV 2025
  THE DERIVATIVE · 5 MENTIONS
8. 7 NOV 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Earnings day stock volatility at financial crisis levels
  - Selling options to capture retail bid for income
20 NOV 2025
THE DERIVATIVE
- Relative value preferred over directional bets · THIS IDEA
26 EPISODES BETWEEN · 42 MENTIONS
1. 21 NOV 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Systematic options via volatility forecasting
2. 25 NOV 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - VIX 25/65 call spread as a year-end hedge
3. 5 DEC 2025
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Optionalized long China yuan trade
4. 16 DEC 2025
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 3 MENTIONS
  - Data-centric client flow analysis for sell-side desks
  - Not all losing flow is bad for the book
  - Analyzing client edge across different time frames
5. 15 JAN 2026 · CHALLENGES
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - Retail speculation concentrated in high-volatility names
6. 28 JAN 2026
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Long-dated options as portfolio risk management
7. 5 FEB 2026
  WHAT BITCOIN DID
  - Cautious 2026 outlook with convexity-seeking hedges
8. 26 FEB 2026
  THE DERIVATIVE
  - Carry trade as a low-risk ag spread strategy
9. 27 FEB 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Use call spreads for EM after rally
10. 27 FEB 2026
  MASTERS IN BUSINESS
  - Implied vs realized volatility is the options seller's edge
11. 5 MAR 2026
  THE DERIVATIVE · 4 MENTIONS
  - Covered call and structured product writing as a vol distortion
  - Long vol as a low-frequency, high-magnitude return source
  - Retail flow in zero-DTE options creates gamma opportunities
  - Sumo wrestling metaphor for market convexity
12. 13 MAR 2026 · CHALLENGES
  FORWARD GUIDANCE
  - Market in 'max pain' stair-step decline
13. 13 MAR 2026
  GOLDMAN SACHS EXCHANGES: THE MARKETS
  - Institutional hedging via macro ETF shorts
14. 13 MAR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE · 6 MENTIONS
  - Spot-vol correlation requires dynamic delta hedging
  - Positioning drives spot-vol correlation beta
  - Straddle price as 80% of annual vol
  - Short-dated options trade straddle moves, not IV
  - Inverted vol term structure can be a trap
  - Vol spikes force position size cuts
15. 15 MAR 2026
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Use options when outcome range is wide
16. 19 MAR 2026
  THE ACQUIRERS PODCAST
  - Cash-secured puts as a value investor's tool
17. 19 MAR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS
  - Long gamma as a core investing philosophy
18. 19 MAR 2026
  MACROVOICES
  - Food inflation call spread using elevated vol
19. 2 APR 2026
  THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
  - VIX call setup before August 2024 spike
20. 10 APR 2026
  THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS
  - Option skew signaled bullish CPI bet
21. 11 APR 2026
  EXCESS RETURNS · 5 MENTIONS
  - VIX collapse driven by options positioning unwind
  - Market is heavily hedged with puts
  - Well-hedged market limits crash potential
  - Zero DTE options priced for perfection, risk high · CHALLENGES
  - Options flows reinforce market trends pre-expiration
22. 13 APR 2026
  ANIMAL SPIRITS · 2 MENTIONS
  - Index-level options avoid capping winners
  - Covered call strategies offer multiple ways to win
23. 29 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  MONETARY MATTERS WITH JACK FARLEY
  - Portfolio protection cheap via VIX puts
24. 31 JUL 2026 · 3W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 2 MENTIONS
  - October-November VIX futures calendar spread trade
  - Short UVXY straddles paired with short SVIX
25. 1 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  TOP TRADERS UNPLUGGED
  - Positively convex: more risk is less risk
26. 5 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
  THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
  - Scaling into and out of inverse VIX
6 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Options market volume remains robust post-June
7 AUG 2026 · 2W AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 4 MENTIONS
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE ALPHA EXCHANGE
- Volatility risk premium as persistent return source
13 AUG 2026 · 5D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK
- Volatility supply from yield products dampens realized vol
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
- Covered calls as a tax-efficient yield enhancer
14 AUG 2026 · 4D AGO
THE OPTIONS INSIDER RADIO NETWORK · 3 MENTIONS

HOW THE SHOWS HAVE DISCUSSED THIS THESIS OVER TIME · NOT A PERFORMANCE RECORD